Track Record #37 Amadeus IT Group (AMS)

Entry date: 08.10.2026
Price date: 08.10.2026
Price: €51.28

I selected Amadeus because it provides critical IT infrastructure for the global travel ecosystem: airlines, airports, hotels and distribution.

TR activated.

#SystemMargin #AMD

I wasn't looking for Arctic stocks. I was looking for a bottleneck.
Icebreaker = hull + propulsion. Steerprop, Kongsberg.
Is it a bottleneck or just good tech?
#Arctic #SystemMargin
👇

smframework.substack.com/p/i-wasnt-lo...

SYSTEM MARGIN TRACK RECORD #36

A new position has been added to the official Track Record.

Embraer (NYSE: EMBR)

Entry date: 07.10.2026

Reference price: $75.20

Price date: 06.10.2026 (session close)

#SystemMargin #TrackRecord

Adding Rumo to the Track Record.
$RAIL3 🇧🇷
Entry: 06.10.2026
Reference close: R$18.92
Price date: 05.10.2026

Brazilian rail, commodities and a pretty important piece of infrastructure.

Let’s see where this train takes me 🤑

#SystemMargin #RAIL3

I now have 33 official positions in System Margin TR.

Each one has its own entry point and reference price.
Now comes the fun part: seeing what the market does with them.
No rewriting the story afterwards. Just watching and learning.
Latest: Kumba Iron Ore (JSE: KIO), entered 06.10.

#SystemMargin

Adding Kumba Iron Ore to the System Margin TR.

JSE: $KIO
Entry date: 06.08.2026
Reference close: R223.13
Price date: 02.09.2026

Logging the starting point and watching what happens next.

#SystemMargin #KIO

2/2
Shinko has >90% of the pumps, but it’s private, so you can’t buy it.
Dongsung and Hankuk are just a duopoly.
Of three names, only one had a real investable path.
The rest had no ticker or were too weak.
Sometimes a constraint leaves zero companies. That’s also a result.
#SystemMargin #GTT

Valterra Platinum enters the official System Margin Track Record today.

Entry date: 5 Oct 2026
Reference price: ZAR 1,306.94, closing price on 2 Oct 2026.

The thesis is based on structural control of a rent-bearing link in the PGM supply chain.

#SystemMargin

Sasol enters my Track Record today.

The thesis: whoever controls coal and gas conversion in South Africa can capture rent.

Entry: 2 Oct 2026, $13.95 (SSL, NYSE).

What could prove me wrong: oil, the rand or coal costs eat the margin.

#SystemMargin

4/4
System Margin is not a screener or a recommendation.

It tests whether a constraint can turn into rent for one company. Rejected cases stay in the archive: a method that keeps only its hits proves nothing.

I freeze the reference point on entry. Time gets a vote.

#SystemMargin

1/4
Most analysis starts with a company I like.

I start with a different question: where in the supply chain is the constraint that can't be easily replaced?

Only then do I check whether anyone can earn money from it. The company is a hypothesis, not a starting point.

#SystemMargin #RiskFirst

2/2
Will I still find the constraint, who controls it, who gets paid for it, and how much actually reaches the shareholder?
These 26 companies are just a public record of my decisions, with dates. I can be wrong, and I'd rather it be visible. Time will show the rest.
#SystemMargin

NEW TR: Grindrod Limited 🇿🇦
Grindrod ($GND) enters the System Margin Track Record.
Entry: 29 Sep 2026
Close: R28.86
Ports, terminals and critical trade corridors.
Bottlenecks rarely make noise. They quietly collect rent.
Now we watch what the process found.
#SystemMargin #GND

Sembcorp $U96 enters my System Margin TR.
I didn't start with AI. I started with the bottleneck: power for Singapore's data centres and chips.
Sembcorp has the infrastructure, contracts and customers on that link.
Entry: S$5.80 (29.09.2026 close)
#Sembcorp #SystemMargin

7/7

That’s where I leave the case for now.

The physical economics look real.

What decides it is how much of that rent already shows up in the price.

Case stays open. Not in TR.

$USLM #SystemMargin

Update: after further analysis, 5N Plus moves from NAV to the official System Margin TR.

Entry: 28.09.2026
Close: C$30.70

#SystemMargin #VNP

5/5
CAMT is now in my official Track Record after a 4/4 blind discovery.
Entry: $142.61
Close: 28 Sep 2026
Now I just watch.
No prediction.
No target.
No story to defend.
Let’s see what happens.
#SystemMargin $CAMT

1/5
CAMT is going into my Track Record.
I didn’t start with AI.
I started with a simpler question:
What gets harder to inspect as advanced packaging gets more complex?
That took me to Camtek.
#SystemMargin $CAMT

TR is not a portfolio.

It's a record of hypotheses made before the outcome is known.

No hindsight.
No rewriting the process.

We record it.

Then we wait.

#SystemMargin #RiskFirst

25 cases already on the public record.

Different markets.
Different sectors.
Different bottlenecks.

The list is growing.

But the interesting part is not the list.

It's what happens next.

System Margin has made its selections.

Now time gets a vote.

#SystemMargin