@overshove.bsky.socialA few hundred hours of live cash feels like a lot when you are living it. But statistically it is still a small window. Before drawing conclusions about your edge, keep logging and let the hours build. #LivePoker #SampleSize
@gogoglen.bsky.socialA smaller, sample size, Friendship Star quilt for the next series of maker's markets.
#friendship #star #quilt #samplesize #makersmarket #malequilter #australia #quiltsky
@aleatoricfc.bsky.socialWith no edge at all, Kelly beats flat 49.9% of the time. My gap sits at the 44th percentile of that noise.
This settles nothing.
Locked before kickoff:
aleatoricfc.github.io/aleatoric-ve...
t.me/aleatoricfc
@aleatoricfc.bsky.socialDon't trust me. Especially now.
Each morning pre-kickoff: my games and markets, plus a signed SHA-256 of the picks. Pinned: key, steps, verify.py.
Proof I can't lie. Not that I have an edge.
@aleatoricfc.bsky.socialThat lead could just be luck.
I replayed the same 34 bets with no skill involved. Kelly still finished this far ahead 2 times in 5.
Direction matches theory. Size proves nothing.