Are beans on their way to revisit 1273?

And if yes, will it hold? If not, there’s a big air pocket below...

Probably we’ll get the answer after tomorrow’s WASDE.

#soybeans #oatt

Another confirmation that the month-long pause in Ukrainian attacks on merchant vessels in the Black Sea is clearly over.

An Aframax tanker, AFRAMAX RIO (~100K mt DWT), fully loaded with oil for India, was reportedly hit near Sochi this afternoon.

#oatt #sizovreport #wheat #blacksea

Big move in BRLUSD after Flávio Bolsonaro’s unexpectedly strong election result — one of the factors behind today’s strength in ags.

#soybeans #corn #oatt

Is CBOT #wheat finally starting to move?

Saudi Arabia bought 0.6+ mmt last weekend. More importantly, Black Sea exports remain heavily restricted.

In our view, things escalated substantially last week.

#oatt #sizovreport #blacksea

Bloomberg on Russia’s attempts to reroute #grain exports away from the Black Sea.

Sizov: “The harsh reality is there are no export routes, in principle, that can replace the Black Sea.”

1/2

#oatt

#Wheat is clinging to the 675 level, but the chart still doesn't look great for bulls.

New shorts piled in yesterday.

700 or 650 from here?

#oatt

#Soybeans don't like the lack of new Chinese commitments...

All ags could come under pressure unless the WH says something to make farmers "very happy."

#oatt

Plenty of #wheat. Not enough ways to ship it.

Our latest September export estimates, cited by the WSJ:
Russia: 2.1 mmt −56% YoY
Ukraine: 0.9 mmt −52% YoY

The Black Sea bottleneck is hitting both major wheat exporters at once.

www.wsj.com/world/war-th...

#wheat #BlackSea #oatt

Algeria just paid ~$30/mt more for #wheat than in its previous tender.

OAIC bought around 500–510K mt at an estimated $319–321/mt C&F for November shipment.

In its previous tender on August 5, Algeria bought up to 720K mt at around $289–290/mt C&F.

Pakistan next?

#oatt #sizovreport

#Wheat bounced right off the 730 area yesterday — the July high and 20-day moving average — and has already made a higher high today.

Dead-cat bounce or something bigger?

Our view in the weekly market report:
sizov.report/reports/3109...

#oatt #sizovreport

The Black Sea disruption has gone physical.

Asian buyers have booked at least 500kt of Australian and Argentine #wheat to replace delayed cargoes - Reuters.

Alternatives cost $310–330/t C&F versus $260–280 for Black Sea wheat.

#oatt #blacksea