This week’s market picture is sending a more mixed message beneath the surface. We break down what changed and why it matters in the latest Weekly Market Trends.
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The U.S. Debt Servicing Cost expressed as a percentage of tax revenues correlates well with the 10-Year Treasury Note yield. Currently, yields appear to be headed higher. #Staytuned Source: Baird|Strategas 2026.10.5

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Does headline CPI tell the whole inflation story? Our latest video explores a different perspective on inflation and everyday expenses. Visit our blog for the full research.
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Check out this week’s Weekly Market Trends as we examine broad market strength, two Death Crosses, and what these signals reveal about current market conditions.
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#Banks borrow short and lend long, generally. A flattening #yieldcurve, all things being equal, may squeeze #bank profitability. #Staytuned

Source: Baird|Strategas 2026.09.24

Past Performance does not guarantee future outcomes.

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In 2018 and 2022, High Yield CDX credit default swap spreads were already deteriorating as Fed tightening bit. As this tightening cycle begins, credit remains calm. We'll watch closely for that to change.

Src: Bloomberg 26.9.22 Baird|Strategas 26.9.22
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During past tightening cycles, we observe two important points:

1) The Fed has rarely raised #interestrates once during a tightening cycle
2) Historically, the #Fed only pauses tightening after something breaks [a hedge fund, a financial institution, etc.]

#Staytuned

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Check out this week’s Weekly Market Trends as major benchmarks remain in uptrends
while new Golden and Death Crosses highlight changing momentum beneath the surface.
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Can you identify the industry?

77% of its stocks are in uptrends while credit spreads contract. Price hasn't broken out—but the internals have our attention.

Curious which industry we're watching? Contact us.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2026.09.18
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The Fed raised rates Wednesday, yet long-term inflation expectations remain contained. The 5yr/5yr forward breakeven sits near 2.3%, suggesting markets have not priced a lasting inflation problem.

Src: Bloomberg Finance L.P. | Baird Strategas 2026.09.18
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10-year Treasury yields are challenging the 4.997% range high. A sustained breakout would put Fibonacci extensions at 5.53%, 5.69%, 5.86% and 6.39% in view over time—not forecasts, but levels to watch.

Source: MarketSurge 2026.09.18
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Sentiment has cooled. Strategas’ composite fell from excessive optimism to the 55th percentile. Bullishness remains, but attitudes look restrained rather than euphoric. Contrarians take note.

Src: Baird | Strategas 2026.09.18
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Is investor optimism getting ahead of market performance? Our latest framework shows mixed signals across short-, intermediate- and longer-term periods. Watch our latest analysis and visit our blog for the complete research.
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Bond yields remain in an uptrend, but sentiment is getting crowded. Bond bullishness has fallen to the 11th percentile. As contrarians, we take note. Trends rarely move in straight lines. A pause wouldn't change the trend.

Src: Baird | Strategas 2026.09.16
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A Fed hike may be good for bonds? History is less cooperative. Across the last 8 tightening cycles, 10-year Absolute treasury yields moved higher by averages of +0.27% after 3 months and +0.55% after 6.

Src: Baird | Strategas, Bloomberg 2026.09.15
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As Captain Obvious 😂, I provide this view of 10-Year Note yields and Brent crude oil prices. They’ve been moving together. Oil up. Yields up. Sometimes markets make subtlety unnecessary.

Src: Baird | Strategas 2026.09.15

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Market weakness does not always mean the same thing. We studied 55 historical episodes when broad selling occurred during an intact S&P 500 uptrend. Watch our latest video and visit our blog for the research.
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Four new Death Crosses emerged while the major equity benchmarks remain in uptrends. Check out this week’s Weekly Market Trends for what the latest signals are telling us.
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September and midterm years warrant respect, but the market still gets the benefit of the doubt: 68% of S&P 500 stocks remain in uptrends. Breadth deteriorated well before the 2025 selloff. We’re watching.

Src: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2026.09.10
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The 10-year Treasury yield has broken above a long consolidation, closing at 4.922%. The psychological 5% level comes first; above it, Fibonacci extensions identify 5.162%, 5.271%, 5.379% and 5.732% as levels to watch.

Src: Yahoo Finance 2026.09.10
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