This was a few weeks of struggle, but finally, it's here. I hope you enjoy the read—a deep dive into the Kelly Criterion's original 1956 paper.
aleatoricfc.com/blog/the-mat...
@aleatoricfc.bsky.social
@aleatoricfc.bsky.socialThis was a few weeks of struggle, but finally, it's here. I hope you enjoy the read—a deep dive into the Kelly Criterion's original 1956 paper.
aleatoricfc.com/blog/the-mat...
@aleatoricfc.bsky.socialWith no edge at all, Kelly beats flat 49.9% of the time. My gap sits at the 44th percentile of that noise.
This settles nothing.
Locked before kickoff:
aleatoricfc.github.io/aleatoric-ve...
t.me/aleatoricfc
@informaq.bsky.socialEdward Thorp's discipline of quantifying edges before committing capital offers a rigorous framework for quantum computing evaluation: demand measured advantages, establish their precise magnitude, and size commitments proportionally—not to excitement.
@aleatoricfc.bsky.socialThat lead could just be luck.
I replayed the same 34 bets with no skill involved. Kelly still finished this far ahead 2 times in 5.
Direction matches theory. Size proves nothing.