The night is getting late, and we haven't heard much back with only 10 ridings left. Here is where the model stands, my final post for the night.

PQ 59 (58-61)
PLQ 40 (38-41)
PCQ 19 (18-19)
QS 9 (9-9)
CAQ 0 (0-1)

#jszym_qc2026 #cdnpoli #qcpoli #qc2026

Only 17 ridings left!

Model says

PQ 59 (57-61)
PLQ 39 (37-40)
PCQ 19 (18-21)
QS 10 (9-10)
CAQ 0 (0-2)

#jszym_qc2026 #qc2026 #qcpoli #cdnpoli

And Radio-Canada calls a PQ minority.

#jszym_qc2026 #qc2026 #qcpoli #cdnpoli

At 92/127 ridings, I've seen enough. I'm quite sure this is a PQ minority. The model says there's 99% chance of a PQ minority. CAQ's likelihood of getting wiped-out is increasing.

PQ 57 (53-61)
PLQ 41 (38-43)
PCQ 19 (17-22)
QS 9 (8-10)
CAQ 1 (0-2)

#qc2026 #cdnpoli #jszym_qc2026 #qcpoli

We've got 8/127 ridings called so far, but the projections haven't changed much as they've been called in safe ridings.

Radio-Canada just announced that the next government will be a PQ government, but we were pretty sure about that even yesterday so no big surprises.

#jszym_qc2026 #qc2026 […]

It's election day in Quebec! Here's what my (v. simple) election model is calling for tonights results. I'll update them as ridings are called. (Follow/Mute #jszym_qc2026 if you like)

Seats
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PQ 56 (49-62)
PLQ 41 (38-44)
PCQ 18 (16-22)
QS 8 (6-10)
CAQ 4 (0-6)

Vote Shares
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PLQ 29% […]