#California: #energy costs 50% above the national median, top income tax rate, least #affordable housing, most regulation, highest unemployment (5.1%). And yet 3.6% GDP growth, 3rd among states, behind only NY and Idaho - #JPMorganAM credits #AI ...

#earnings expectations have been revised materially higher, not lower, as companies continue to exceed forecasts by significantly wider-than-expected margins, chart #JPMorganAM

#Magnificent7 have underperformed the broader market, rising roughly 12% this year compared to the S&P 500’s ~15% gain. And yet, earnings for that group are expected to rise ca. 59% this year while growth for the remaining 493 companies in the index is expected to be about 23%,
chart #JPMorganAM

In the 2Q2026, net profit margin sat at 17%. In the 3Q, a modest decrease to 15% is expected, which still leaves profitability well above both last year’s level and the 5y average of 12.6%, chart #JPMorganAM

S&P 500 #earnings growth is expected to increase ca. 29%Y in the 3Q2026. If realized, it would mark 8 consecutive quarters of double-digit #earnings growth, the longest streak since the rebound that followed the GFC, chart #JPMorganAM

The S&P 500 has delivered positive returns in the 12 months following every #midterm election, with an average gain of about 15%, chart Jordan Jackson #JPMorganAM

#Fed Funds rate expectations, chart #JPMorganAM

#Bloomberg US aggregate yields, nom and real - chart #JPMorganAM

2026 asset class returns,
This week's chart highlights 3Q2026’s #Fed rate #hike and rising yields, which drove #bonds down 4% and #smallcaps down 7%, while #commodities surged, chart #JPMorganAM

CB #real (nom minus inflation) policy rate, chart #JPMorganAM

CB policy rate expectations, BoE BoJ ECB Fed chart #JPMorganAM

Private equity (PE) firms—investment funds that buy private companies—are having a hard time cashing out of their investments. Because they haven't been able to sell companies easily over the past few years, they are stuck with a massive backlog of aging assets, chart #JPMorganAM

Surging #electricity prices add to the burden of households struggling with #fuel and #gas prices as oil hovers near $100 a barrel. The average household spends about 3% of their income on heating and cooling their home and powering their appliances, chart #JPMorganAM

It’s not unusual to see a wide dispersion between individual stocks and sectors. However, today, stocks are moving more independently than normal, chart #JPMorganAM

Whereas the majority of gains in the S&P 500 are driven by the heavyweight #technology companies investing heavily in the #AI build-out, other sectors that are less resilient are feeling the impact of higher rates, chart #JPMorganAM

(Ouch!) In a midterms election cycle, in which #affordability is a key voting issue, it’s no wonder that public backlash has focused in on reliance on utilities. In response, state Govt have put moratoriums on that build-out, notes Kriti Gupta #JPMorganAM

#tariff burden—defined as the share of total inflows that firms spend on tariffs—falls unevenly across the economy. As shown above, across JPMorgan ‘s full U.S. sample it rose by 2.32x to 0.8% post-2025, chart #JPMorganAM

(pivotal)
#international outflows have increased slightly since late 2025 but remain below the trend of domestic outflows, chart #JPMorganAM

This week's chart highlights global #PMIs at multi-year highs, signaling resilient growth but keeping rates higher for longer amid sticky #inflation - chart #JPMorganAM

Despite continued disruptions to #energy supply, the global economy has shown remarkable resilience, notes #JPMorganAM