@robertobalbino.bsky.socialAI is changing M&A: why buy the company if you can hire the people, license the technology and capture its capabilities?
Nvidia–Groq may reveal a new model of consolidation — one that challenges valuation, governance and antitrust.
#AI #Nvidia #M&A #FINTECHSCB
@robertobalbino.bsky.socialCheap money was the anomaly. Markets just forgot.
Higher bond yields aren’t only repricing bonds: they’re forcing stocks, property, debt and the AI capex boom to justify their returns again.
Capital has a price. Apparently, this is news.
@robertobalbino.bsky.socialAI’s trillion-dollar question isn’t how many GPUs or data centres we can finance.
It’s where independent final demand begins.
The infrastructure is real. But financing demand, capex demand and end-user demand are not the same thing.
@robertobalbino.bsky.socialBitcoin is back. But this is no longer just a halving story.
ETFs, institutions, stablecoins, dollar liquidity and tokenisation are changing the architecture around it.
My new analysis:
@robertobalbino.bsky.socialEveryone watches AI models. Watch AI debt. Big Tech has provided up to $300bn in guarantees supporting AI infrastructure. Risk doesn’t disappear because it moves off balance sheet. The next AI shock may start with the residual value of a GPU. #AI #FintechSCB
@robertobalbino.bsky.socialA plane ticket is not priced like a product. It is an asset with an expiry time.
My new deep dive: fares, Business vs Economy, VPN myths, slots, hubs, fuel, loyalty, profits and 50 booking claims tested.
Free
@robertobalbino.bsky.socialGlobal growth: 2.9%. But the average hides the story.
India 7.1%. China 4.5%. US 2.2%. Euro area 1.0%. Italy 0.9%.
The global economy is resilient, but increasingly unsynchronized. The real macro story is dispersion.
Source: OECD
www.oecd.org/en/publicati...
@robertobalbino.bsky.socialPrivate equity is not in the same cycle everywhere.
U.S.: exits are the bottleneck.
Global: distributions remain weak.
LatAm: capital investment is accelerating.
Same asset class. Very different realities.
@robertobalbino.bsky.socialEurope can use AI without owning the AI economy.
That distinction could shape its future productivity, wealth and geopolitical power.
My new analysis: markets, purchasing power, capital, compute, energy and Europe’s AI scale problem.
Free access.
@robertobalbino.bsky.socialNasdaq: record high.
U.S. wages: +3.1%.
Inflation: +3.4%.
Real hourly pay: −0.3% after inflation.
No contradiction.
Markets measure capital. Households experience purchasing power.
A stock-market record ≠ broadly shared prosperity.
@robertobalbino.bsky.socialFinally, AI finance explained by a haircut.
Nothing necessarily fake. Just excellent presentation.
Financing ≠ demand.
Contracts ≠ profits.
Revenue ≠ cash flow.
AI may be revolutionary. Financial engineering is considerably older technology.
@robertobalbino.bsky.socialFinance. Markets. Economics. Geopolitics.
FINTECH SCB — Understand before deciding.
@robertobalbino.bsky.socialThe Fed sets interest rates. DeFi can ignore them—or move the other way. Stablecoins are building a parallel dollar system that central banks do not fully control. Read my complete analysis free on Substack: #DeFi #Stablecoins #FintechSCB
@robertobalbino.bsky.socialUK debt risk isn’t a buyers’ strike.
It’s institutional friction.
BoE may slow QT on Sept. 17 while the Treasury funds itself near multi-decade-high yields.
One arm of the state is selling gilts while another needs cheaper funding.
That tension is the real story.
@robertobalbino.bsky.socialAmerica’s debt problem is becoming an interest problem.
Interest costs are up ~13% YoY. The danger isn’t that markets stop financing Washington — it’s that servicing yesterday’s debt starts writing tomorrow’s budget.
@robertobalbino.bsky.socialThe debt crisis isn’t a buyers’ strike.
It’s worse: investors are still buying — at 5–6%.
Governments can still borrow almost anything. They just can’t control the price anymore.
Welcome to the 5% world.
@robertobalbino.bsky.socialInformation is abundant. Judgment is not.
Fintech SCB keeps analysis free — while providing international financial advisory and private online consultancy for real financial decisions.
@robertobalbino.bsky.socialEveryone is a founder. Everyone is an accelerator. Everyone is disrupting something.
Then arithmetic arrives.
Ideas are everywhere. Capital and real success aren’t.
This is not the death of innovation. It is the return of arithmetic.