At 70.16 dollars a barrel, the refining margin sits 2.33 standard deviations over its 120 day average. $CL_F options price a 2.64 dollar day against 2.25 delivered over 30 days. Today's 3.18 dollar gain to 91.46 cleared both. Top call open interest sits at the 100 strike.

Commodities & FX. Brent spiked to $103 and $CL_F trades above $90 after attacks on Saudi infrastructure and a tanker strike. US emergency diesel stocks are at zero. The dollar sits at a 52 week high, central bank gold buying rebounded to 290 tonnes.

Crude sits 0.13 of a priced day above the line where dealer hedging flips. $CL_F trades 91.09 against a 90.73 flip, and options price a 2.83 dollar day with IV at 49.29% over 39.67% realized. Above 90.73 hedging damps moves, below it hedging adds to them.

#oil #commodities #futures

Commodities & FX. Brent falls 2.59% to $102.59 as Yanbu exports resume and the 40mb SPR release drains the supply premium. Desk fair value is $90 with $CL_F under $80. EUR and GBP sit stretched short into record USD speculative positioning.

The crack spread, the margin for turning crude into fuel, sits at $66.42 a barrel, above 99.2% of the last 120 closes. $CL_F options charge for a $2.99 daily swing over 30 days at 52.45% IV, against $2.28 delivered at 39.90% realized. Friday Oct 2 payrolls come next.

#oil #commodities #futures

Here is one I did on my site of #CL_F