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@alxndrmlk.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 8:43 AM

You can see me here citing Sam Altman's 2024 prediction about 1-person $1 billion companies created using AI.

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#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky #AISky

Two men either side of a book cover. On the left, Elias Bareinboim in a black top and glasses; on the right, Alex Molak in a white shirt, mid-sentence, with causal diagrams on a whiteboard behind him. The cover reads 'Causal Artificial Intelligence: A Roadmap for Building Causally Intelligent Systems, Elias Bareinboim'.
@alxndrmlk.bsky.socialOct 7, 2026, 8:07 AM

400+ nodes and 1500+ edges

And 11 different ways people at NASA referred to changes in gravitational force

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#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky

@alxndrmlk.bsky.socialSep 29, 2026, 12:50 PM

Our new episode with Robert J. Reynolds is out now!

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#CausalSky #StatSky #EpiSky #MLSky

Square Causal Bandits Podcast thumbnail on a blue background. Large white text reads 'CAUSAL MODELS at NASA', with NASA in red. Alex Molak is on the left and Robert J. Reynolds on the right, with a grey astronaut figure between them. A caption at the bottom reads 'Robert Reynolds, PhD'.
@alxndrmlk.bsky.socialSep 28, 2026, 8:30 AM

Last week I went to New York to talk to Robert J. Reynolds, PhD, for a new podcast series with @sobor.bsky.social and UBC.

Rob had quite a story to tell about his work with causal models at NASA.

#CausalSky #StatSky #MLSky

A New York City street selfie of two smiling men. A label reads 'This is Rob' with a red arrow pointing to the man on the left, Robert J. Reynolds, next to Alex Molak on the right. The NASA logo is in the bottom-left corner and the Causal Bandits Podcast logo is in the top-right.
@alxndrmlk.bsky.socialSep 27, 2026, 6:07 PM

We just sent today's issue of Causal Python Bi-Weekly.

Here's what's inside:

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#CausalSky #StatSky #EconSky #EpiSky #MLSky

Causal Python Bi-Weekly issue 180 thumbnail. Headline 'When the best recommendation is the one we hold back' with a portrait of Athanasios Vlontzos (Hologen, ex-Spotify), on making Spotify's recommender causal using holdback data already collected. Also inside: Hume, de Finetti and induction, with David Rohde on deferring to a machine, and UBC's causal AI cluster launching October 8 with a keynote by Robert J. Reynolds.
@alxndrmlk.bsky.socialSep 21, 2026, 12:53 PM

I'm in NYC to record a couple of new episodes of the #CausalBanditsPodcast

What questions should I ask Elias Bareinboim and Robert J. Reynolds?

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#CausalSky #StatSky #EconSky #EpiSky #MLSky

Alex smiling in a selfie in Times Square, New York City, wearing a beige corduroy jacket over a yellow polo shirt, with blurred billboards, skyscrapers, and crowds in the background.
@alxndrmlk.bsky.socialSep 16, 2026, 9:30 AM

AI assistants can convince us to make bad decisions while we keep believing they were helpful.

And it's a significant problem in statistics, causal analysis, and research.

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#CausalSky #StatSky #EconSky #EpiSky #MLSky

Screenshot of Valerio Capraro's LinkedIn post: 'New PNAS paper shows that AI can manipulate your preferences, and you may still think it's helping you.' Below it, the PNAS paper header 'Human preferences are susceptible to covertly misaligned AI advice' by Sahand Sabour et al., and a side-eyeing Doge meme.
@alxndrmlk.bsky.socialSep 13, 2026, 1:13 PM

Peeking at A/B tests?

Does the stopping rule actually matter?

In today's issue of Causal Python Weekly:

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#CausalSky #StatSky #EconSky #EpiSky #MLSky

Causal Python Weekly issue thumbnail. Editorial headline 'Spotify is not using Bayesian A/B testing' by David Rohde (Criteo), on stopping rules, peeking, and what a confidence interval buys us. Also inside: UBC's Causal AI cluster and a new podcast series, plus new causal jobs.
@alxndrmlk.bsky.socialSep 11, 2026, 8:53 AM

"AGI has arrived"

(But not for the first time)

#CausalSky #AISky #MLSky #StatSky

A square graphic titled 'AGI is Here?' above a screenshot of a Reddit thread. User ForwardLoop lists three times in 2026 that Nvidia's CEO claimed AGI was reached (March on the Lex Fridman Podcast, August on NVIDIA's Q2 earnings call, September in a tweet) and asks 'Maybe third time's the charm?', with joking replies below.