For policymakers, the index is best viewed as an early-warning and diagnostic tool, chart #AtlantaFed
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Because the index relies only on public data, it can be updated every month to show, while a disruption is still unfolding, which US imports are exposed and where they enter the country, chart #AtlantaFed
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#Fed Funds Rate: probability of a rate hike in Dec 2026: 94.51%, chart #AtlantaFed www.atlantafed.org/research-and...

The probability of a rate hike by Sept 16, 2026: 91.4%, chart #AtlantaFed
www.atlantafed.org/research-and...