The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $110, ahead of Brent (+$6.71), and Brent/WTI avg (+$11.16). #akleg

The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $110, ahead of Brent (+$6.71), and Brent/WTI avg (+$11.16). #akleg

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | Was there any real progress last week on #AKLNG, diving deeper than the press releases on the APFC’s performance & the House Majority proves again their “concern” about working #AKfams is a stage prop. #akleg buff.ly/MrAHEhj

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | Was there any real progress last week on #AKLNG, diving deeper than the press releases on the APFC’s performance & the House Majority proves again their “concern” about working #AKfams is a stage prop. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-weekly-top-3-1052026

Alaska betting markets edge toward Sullivan, but chatbots and bettors still split on the Senate race

https://votingmonitor.org/races/AK-SEN/ #akleg

The Saturday Charts | Each Saturday, we compare current FY gross oil revs vs. DOR's most recent (NOW SPRING 26) F'cast. W/ 27% of FY27 booked, projected annual gross revs (blue) running ⬆️ 34% to SPRING '26 F'cast. Projected FY27 WAVG currently $101. #akleg

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The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 13.82% v PFC 6.11%
* 3-yr: S&P 23.28% v PFC 9.89%
* 1-yr: S&P 17.35% v PFC 10.37%

The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg

FY27:
> Spring RF: $75
> Avg FYTD: $92
> +Futures: $100 (+$1.25bn)

FY28-36:
> Spring RF: $71
> Futures: $74 (+$128mil)

This Week's Column| Middle-income #AKfams are already struggling per United Way's ALICE study. PFD cuts are a significant contributor. Adding more spending, paid for by even deeper PFD cuts, would make it worse. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-friday-column-the-alice-report

DOJ told that it's illegal to use #Alaska voter registration data that our Director of Elections illegally sent to them!
Looking forward to our new AG prosecuting her and the Lite Gov.
#AKleg #AKGov
www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/...

The Friday P.M. "Goldilocks" Charts| We publish five charts Fri afternoons showing the impact of current futures $$oil on Alaska's fiscal outlook and three alternatives for resolving it. (Background: bit.ly/3UhbLCZ) #akleg

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This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | Was there any real progress last week on #AKLNG, diving deeper than the press releases on the APFC’s performance & the House Majority proves again their “concern” about working #AKfams is a stage prop. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-weekly-top-3-1052026

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 13.68% v PFC 6.11%
* 3-yr: S&P 23.29% v PFC 9.89%
* 1-yr: S&P 16.32% v PFC 10.37%

The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg

FY27:
> Spring RF: $75
> Avg FYTD: $91
> +Futures: $99 (+$1.19bn)

FY28-36:
> Spring RF: $71
> Futures: $73 (+$84mil)

The Friday A.M. Charts| We publish 2 charts Friday mornings. #akleg

First, we chart YTD $$oil + the outlook from the current futures mkt v. DOR's most recent 10-year rev f'cast. Futures: near (⬆️ $17), mid (⬆️ $4) & long-term (⬇️ $5) v. SPRING26 F'cast (rev).

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This Week's Column| Some cite Medicaid and a couple of other cherry-picked programs to rationalize using only PFD cuts to close the state’s ongoing deficits. We explain why the argument is deeply flawed. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-friday-column-a-few-cherry-picked

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | Was there any real progress last week on #AKLNG, diving deeper than the press releases on the APFC’s performance & the House Majority proves again their “concern” about working #AKfams is a stage prop. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-weekly-top-3-1052026

Alaska chatbots still pick incumbent Begich for the House seat, while markets are even more confident.

https://votingmonitor.org/races/AK-AL-HOUSE/ #akleg

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 13.75% v PFC 6.11%
* 3-yr: S&P 23.48% v PFC 9.89%
* 1-yr: S&P 17.55% v PFC 10.37%