BREAKING: Invest #92L has been upgraded to #Tropical Depression Nine (9)! Further strengthening will ensue later this week as this circulation lifts northward towards the northern Gulf coast.

Be sure to keep the @live5weather.bsky.social app handy this week for the latest details!

#Tropics #AL92

Morning Google DeepMind continues to be quite aggressive in showing a significant hurricane making landfall somewhere between Mobile and Panama City, while physics based models are gradually trending more aggressive as well, hurricane models show hurricane at landfall, tho farther W than GDM #92L

There's now a 100% chance of something forming in Gulf in next 48 hours + models indicate center headed to Plaquemines by weekend, and could be Cat 1 or 2 hurricane by landfall.
Prepare now. Follow NHC, local NWS + parish/state official recommendations.
tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#92L

Tuesday morning's run of the 1000-member Google Deepmind ensemble shows a virtually 100% chance of Invest #92L becoming Tropical Storm #Isaias by Thursday morning. Then, it indicates a 93% chance of it becoming the season's 1st hurricane, and a 43% chance of it reaching Category 3+ intensity.

This is the website I consult endlessly to give myself a false sense of control over the weather.

www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#92L

700AM CDT Oct 6: Here are the Key Messages for Invest #92L located over the southwestern Gulf of America. For the latest updates on this disturbance visit https://hurricanes.gov https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/2107434890665099605

700AM CDT Oct 6: Here are the Key Messages for Invest #92L located over the southwestern Gulf of America. For the latest updates on this disturbance visit t.co/GrztW6nozt

🔗 hurricanes.gov

Because this is now Invest #92L, we have now gotten our first hurricane specific models

These specific runs show a C1 to maybe C2 hurricane likely enlargening on approach due to the beginnings of ET transition + the wind shear I discussed in my last post

Getting a bit more alarmed today regarding our tropical AOI (now Invest #92L). There has quite an uptick on the Deepmind members + ensembles today on intensity compared to yesterday

We are still expecting some shear and dry air entrainment leading to ET transition right before landfall…

TROPICS: The @live5weather.bsky.social team is closely monitoring an area of low pressure in the SW Gulf, now classified as Invest #92L!

Per @nhc-atlantic.extwitter.link, this disturbance carries a "high" chance of developing into a tropical system later this week as it lifts northward.

#Tropics

Here are the various ensemble forecast positions from the experimental and operational version of GDM for Friday evening. Compare the large spread in the forecasts for #92L versus the much more clustered forecasts for #92E in the Pacific.

2 pm EDT - Here is an update on Invest #92L in the Gulf. Visit https://hurricanes.gov for details. https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/2107172637244006567

As myself and others have discussed, Google DeepMind is definitely not dissimilar to other models in struggling with tropical cyclogenesis. New 1200 UTC model run is less bullish with development of #92L over Gulf and has a lot more dispersion/uncertainty in solutions.

2 pm EDT - Here is an update on Invest #92L in the Gulf. Visit t.co/GrztW6nozt for details.

100PM CDT: Here are the Key Messages for Invest #92L located over the southwestern Gulf of America. For the latest updates on this disturbance visit https://hurricanes.gov https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/2107161866409582911

100PM CDT: Here are the Key Messages for Invest #92L located over the southwestern Gulf of America. For the latest updates on this disturbance visit t.co/GrztW6mQJV

🔗 hurricanes.gov

It’s been a dead-quiet hurricane season, but the Gulf Coast needs to shake off complacency because #Invest92L in the SW Gulf is coming together. A named storm is likely; a weekend hurricane is possible.

Monday PM discussion below. Sign up at the link for full #92L (potentially #Isaias) coverage.