Iran are now claiming two supertankers have been hit in the Strait of Hormuz and are on fire.

I can find no verification of these claims.

But - along with the confirmed attacks on vessels earlier today by small boat attack near Saudi Arabia, this is a terrifying escalation for #TheHormuzCrisis

I began the week with the seafarers because they face the immediate danger.

The wider point of the week is that a system can still move cargo while becoming less open, less predictable and less able to serve those who depend on it.

This has implications for all of us.

#TheHormuzCrisis

I haven't written a longer #TheHormuzCrisis thread yet this week.

Most of my updates have been reports of yet another attack on a merchant ship, followed by the difficult task of establishing what happened to the crew.

#TheHormuzCrisis is getting worse, and the reporting is so sporadic it is getting hard to keep track.

Two vessels sunk and 25 attacks on ships in just 15 days, marking a huge uptick in the danger.

Still the USA is claiming the Strait is open, putting sailors at risk because companies believe them.

Update from the attacks this morning in Hormuz.

2 Indian seafarers are confirmed as missing after one of the drone strikes caused a large fire onboard.

I will keep watching to see if they are recovered safely.

#TheHormuzCrisis #SeafarerSafety

Russian diesel and reserve releases may ease prices.

But they do not prove that lost throughput has been restored or depleted stocks can be rebuilt.

And they do nothing by themselves to make the next voyage safer. That remains my greatest concern with #TheHormuzCrisis and other conflicts.

Now put this against the disruption caused by #TheHormuzCrisis and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The IEA's September Oil Market Report says combined net diesel/gasoil exports from the Gulf and Russia in August were 1.6 million barrels PER DAY lower than in February.

I will be doing a deep dive into this over the weekend. How the product will likely move, what the implications are for the seafarers involved and what this may mean for #TheHormuzCrisis

The IRGC has just taken responsibility for the attack on the LPG gas carrier that occurred this morning.

Then they released this absolutely chilling statement.

They will continue to attack merchant ships because they feel they can do so without consequence...

#TheHormuzCrisis

Attack number 16 in 12 days now.

No news of casualties or environmental impact.

I will keep watching to see if there is any more reports from this attack, but this is now approaching the level of systematic terrorism that was occurring at the start of this conflict.

#TheHormuzCrisis

Again won't be reported in Western media I have no doubt.

But the IRGC just threatened merchant shipping once again, and it is not an idle threat. They have already attacked 14 vessels in the last week, and the most recent attack led to 12 seafarers requiring medical evacuation.

#TheHormuzCrisis

When I posted yesterday about the increases in rates and insurance being what translates to maintained higher prices for businesses and consumers, this is what I meant.

This is what happens when dangerous operations caused by #TheHormuzCrisis are compounded by instability in the Red Sea.

That is why the headline can say “oil falls” while the family car, the haulage firm and the supermarket still feel the opposite.

The newspapers show the market has received some relief. The physical supply chain however has received a warning.

#RedSeaCrisis #TheHormuzCrisis

Today we are able to see the contradiction of oil pricing as a result of the new systems created by #TheHormuzCrisis.

More oil is moving and futures have eased. Yet petrol and diesel prices at the pump remain high.

This is a sign of things to come in the new global systems if not fixed.

UKMTO just put up two alerts.

A tanker has been attacked in Hormuz and another vessel in the Bab al’Mandeb reports explosions in the water nearby as it transited.

This is further escalation after 5 days of near continuous attacks on merchant shipping.

#TheHormuzCrisis #MerchantShipSafety

The next 48–72 hours of #TheHormuzCrisis matter more than ever.

We are now watching for the events that determine whether this hardens into a durable, conditional access regime, or breaks into the wider regional war everyone has spent months trying to avoid.

I held off posting a #TheHormuzCrisis update yesterday because there was a lot happening. I have had time to process and analyse as much as I could, and I think we have reached the tipping point.

It is clear now that we are moving toward a resolution, and that is not reassuring given the evidence.

There is an awful lot happening in #TheHormuzCrisis at the moment.

I am currently reading, processing and trying to understand what we are seeing.

I should have a full run down tomorrow, but by then it could all be out of date with how fast events are moving.

In a follow-up to this morning - The USA has present Iran with it's plan.

So we should have some answers shortly about how this is all likely to play out.

#TheHormuzCrisis

Always worth reading what Ash has to say about #TheHormuzCrisis.