@overshove.bsky.socialYour hourly rate over 100 hours can look very different from your rate over 500. Variance in live poker is wide, and short stretches can flatter or punish you. The data gets more useful the longer you collect it. #SampleSize #LivePoker
@overshove.bsky.socialA few hundred hours of live cash feels like a lot when you are living it. But statistically it is still a small window. Before drawing conclusions about your edge, keep logging and let the hours build. #LivePoker #SampleSize
@gogoglen.bsky.socialA smaller, sample size, Friendship Star quilt for the next series of maker's markets.
#friendship #star #quilt #samplesize #makersmarket #malequilter #australia #quiltsky
@aleatoricfc.bsky.socialWith no edge at all, Kelly beats flat 49.9% of the time. My gap sits at the 44th percentile of that noise.
This settles nothing.
Locked before kickoff:
aleatoricfc.github.io/aleatoric-ve...
t.me/aleatoricfc
@aleatoricfc.bsky.socialDon't trust me. Especially now.
Each morning pre-kickoff: my games and markets, plus a signed SHA-256 of the picks. Pinned: key, steps, verify.py.
Proof I can't lie. Not that I have an edge.
@aleatoricfc.bsky.socialThat lead could just be luck.
I replayed the same 34 bets with no skill involved. Kelly still finished this far ahead 2 times in 5.
Direction matches theory. Size proves nothing.