$CL_F rose 2.76 dollars to 97.85, 2.34 times a 1.18 dollar standard deviation day priced by 19.10% 30 day IV. Realized, the swing actually delivered over 30 days, is 37.42%, or 2.31 dollars. Unusual month or cheap options. Warsh speaks tonight 11:30pm New York time.

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Commodities & FX. Hormuz flows fell from above 20 million barrels a day in early February to roughly 5 to 18 million since March. Crude transits stay minimal as the situation persists, the supply backdrop for $CL_F. No desk FX read today.

Energy sets the regime as the conflict escalates, and US CPI is the binary. $CL_F at $95 and TTF gas near 86, the European gas benchmark, flatten curves and drive a global bond rally. A hot print with hawkish Williams can unwind it fast.

#macro #rates #economy

Turning crude into gasoline and diesel pays 65.74 dollars a barrel, against a 120 day average of 48.38. WTI rose 0.65 dollars to 94.39, only 0.29 of the 2.2 dollar day $CL_F options price. The largest put open interest sits at the 80 strike, calls at 100.

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Commodities & FX. The desk sees $CL_F holding firm on restocking demand and a $20 war premium, so conflict headlines can swing it hard. In FX, charts show $EURUSD framed by a key support line as French 10Y yields trend higher.

At 70.16 dollars a barrel, the refining margin sits 2.33 standard deviations over its 120 day average. $CL_F options price a 2.64 dollar day against 2.25 delivered over 30 days. Today's 3.18 dollar gain to 91.46 cleared both. Top call open interest sits at the 100 strike.

Commodities & FX. Brent spiked to $103 and $CL_F trades above $90 after attacks on Saudi infrastructure and a tanker strike. US emergency diesel stocks are at zero. The dollar sits at a 52 week high, central bank gold buying rebounded to 290 tonnes.

Crude sits 0.13 of a priced day above the line where dealer hedging flips. $CL_F trades 91.09 against a 90.73 flip, and options price a 2.83 dollar day with IV at 49.29% over 39.67% realized. Above 90.73 hedging damps moves, below it hedging adds to them.

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Commodities & FX. Brent falls 2.59% to $102.59 as Yanbu exports resume and the 40mb SPR release drains the supply premium. Desk fair value is $90 with $CL_F under $80. EUR and GBP sit stretched short into record USD speculative positioning.

The crack spread, the margin for turning crude into fuel, sits at $66.42 a barrel, above 99.2% of the last 120 closes. $CL_F options charge for a $2.99 daily swing over 30 days at 52.45% IV, against $2.28 delivered at 39.90% realized. Friday Oct 2 payrolls come next.

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Here is one I did on my site of #CL_F