ICYMI Trump claims the Alaska gas pipeline is now a ‘federal government project’ #akleg #akelect

Great to see Jonathan Kreiss-Tompkins on his way through the state to visit a packed house in Fairbanks. I look forward to working with this guy! #akleg
This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | Even with higher oil prices, Alaska isn’t headed to a budget “surplus,” a potential opening for a “comprehensive” fiscal plan & why the goal of developing a “sustainable PFD” is a disingenuous dodge. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-weekly-top-3-10122026
#akleg In Wasilla the other day, Howard Lutnick said that Trump had “federalized” the AKLNG project. Is that something the state has any say in? What does that mean for our ownership stake, previous investments, and prospects for affordable in-state energy? Does it allow them to skirt property tax?
Alaska desperately needs this. The fear mongering from big oil and republicans makes it seem impossible. So we have climate refugees that may never get help instead. #akleg 🧵
Alaska chatbots still point to Sullivan for Senate, betting markets still favor Peltola, and nothing moved today
This Week's Column| Middle-income #AKfams are already struggling per United Way's ALICE study. PFD cuts are a significant contributor. Adding more spending, paid for by even deeper PFD cuts, would make it worse. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-friday-column-the-alice-report
The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg
FY27:
> Spring RF: $75
> Avg FYTD: $93
> +Futures: $102 (+$1.33bn)
FY28-36:
> Spring RF: $71
> Futures: $74 (+$117mil)
The Thursday Charts| We publish two charts Thursdays. #akleg
Using the prior yr's production profile as a baseline, the first charts YTD production levels compared w/the most recent F'cast (now SPRING26). W/ 29% of FY27 done, YTD avg (red) running -19kbd (-4%) v. F'cast.
1/2
Super shady deal with the Dunleavy Administration, Department of Natural Resources, and AIDEA which would potentially turn into land for a data center. It’s another heist of Alaska land. This should be stopped in its tracks. #akleg
#akleg Question for Alaska voters: What are the weirdest, most annoying, most terrible, or most convincing adverts you're seeing as we enter these last few weeks running up to the elections?
Wishful thinking...
Meme credit to our pals at @ppaohio. We were out-bear-memed by Ohio, and we don't want to talk about it.
Oct Oil Mkt Rpts| While EIA and IEA project overall supply deficits this year, both continue to see huge supply surpluses for next year (2027), likely leading to a significant softening in 2027 prices. #akleg
This Week's Column| Middle-income #AKfams are already struggling per United Way's ALICE study. PFD cuts are a significant contributor. Adding more spending, paid for by even deeper PFD cuts, would make it worse. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-friday-column-the-alice-report
Congratulations to former #akleg staffer Ron Clarke for winning on Jeopardy!
EIA Oct STEO| "We forecast Brent will average $105/b in 4Q26, $14/b higher than in last month’s STEO. Assuming the majority of production in the region returns to pre-conflict averages by the end of 2Q27, we forecast Brent at $87/b in 2Q27 and $74/b in 4Q27." #akleg