End-of-Month (Sept26) Summary for ANS Tankers. 14.8 deliveries (Rolling 12-month avg%). #akleg
CA: 5.7 (45%)
WA: 8.2 (44%)
AK: 1.0 (7%)
HI: 0.0 (2%)
Asia: 0.0 (3%)
Significant during the month: 2 FF underway to Asia.

That's a bummer. #akleg Dems are corporate dems. Won't do it.

The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $108, ahead of Brent (+$4.17), and Brent/WTI avg (+$7.81). #akleg

I just updated this article with additional confirmation of Trump's upcoming visit from Treg Taylor's campaign manager, who said to expect the President in Anchorage on the 16th. #akleg #Alaska

At the Commissioning Ceremony for the US Navy newest destroyer in the fleet tha USS Ted Stevens. Whittier is cold and windy. #akleg

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast |The significance of Alaska’s tax expenditures, in whose pockets do PFD cuts end up & how using PFD cuts to fund state childcare and other subsidies leads to a death spiral for middle-income Alaskans. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-weekly-top-3-9282026

The Saturday Charts | Each Saturday, we compare current FY gross oil revs vs. DOR's most recent (NOW SPRING 26) F'cast. W/ 25% of FY27 booked, projected annual gross revs (blue) running ⬆️ 25% to SPRING '26 F'cast. Projected FY27 WAVG currently $94. #akleg

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The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 13.74% v PFC 6.11%
* 3-yr: S&P 23.27% v PFC 9.89%
* 1-yr: S&P 16.35% v PFC 10.37%

The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg

FY27:
> Spring RF: $75
> Avg FYTD: $90
> +Futures: $97 (+$1.1bn)

FY28-36:
> Spring RF: $71
> Futures: $72 (+$54mil)

The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg

FY27:
> Spring RF: $75
> Avg FYTD: $90
> +Futures: $97 (+$1.1bn)

FY28-36:
> Spring RF: $71
> Futures: $72 (+$54mil)

This Week's Column| Some cite Medicaid and a couple of other cherry-picked programs to rationalize using only PFD cuts to close the state’s ongoing deficits. We explain why the argument is deeply flawed. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-friday-column-a-few-cherry-picked

Monthly PFC Performance Charts | Consistent with our recent columns on PFC performance, we have revised our monthly charts, which show the Permanent Fund's performance against various benchmarks (background: bit.ly/4vSQLEJ). #akleg

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#akleg I've been scheming on an elections time song project w/ @mariancall.bsky.social and Josh Fortenbery. In the tradition of old folk protest songs, we've been inviting other Alaskan musicians to add their spin and pass it around.

Here's the original from Josh:

www.instagram.com/p/Dd-HkqavJQZ/

Last week, it looked like Dennis Miller of Fairbanks was the first voter; now it's Scott and Elizabeth Fischer of Juneau, who had their ballots received Sept. 21. #akleg #akelect

None of these scenarios are good. Republicans enable Trump. If you’re in a red state chances are the state administration enables Trump too. We have every reason to be worried about having a free and fair election. #akleg #akelect

The Friday P.M. "Goldilocks" Charts| We publish five charts Fri afternoons showing the impact of current futures $$oil on Alaska's fiscal outlook and three alternatives for resolving it. (Background: bit.ly/3UhbLCZ) #akleg

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You can check out all 45 years of the dividend's history to see what the stock market would have done if you were a super diligent saver:
benjmatheson.substack.com/p/if-you-had... #akleg

After a few years (of good stock market growth), your contributions become much less of a component of your portfolio as growth takes over. After a few decades, stock market earnings absolutely dominate.

benjmatheson.substack.com/p/if-you-had... #akleg

I ran the numbers for each "starting year" - if you started investing in 2000 for example and invested all future PFDs, you'd have a cool $241,390

benjmatheson.substack.com/p/if-you-had... #akleg