explore | Grilled Cheese

Ganesh Chaturthi reminds us that wisdom begins with understanding. Investing is no different — markets will move, but thoughtful investors pause, understand what’s happening, and then decide how to respond.

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The 10-year Treasury yield has broken above a long consolidation, closing at 4.922%. The psychological 5% level comes first; above it, Fibonacci extensions identify 5.162%, 5.271%, 5.379% and 5.732% as levels to watch.

Src: Yahoo Finance 2026.09.10
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September has historically been the S&P 500's weakest month, but 2026 entered it with strong momentum. What can these competing signals tell investors?

Watch our latest video and visit our blog for the full analysis.

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Market weakness is broadening. 38% of S&P 500 stocks hit 20-day lows yesterday, up from 31% last week. Our research identifies 50%+ during an uptrend as worth watching. Not there yet—but closer.

Src: Baird | Strategas 2026.09.10
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A crowd can create its own evidence.

Sometimes, the crowd becomes the evidence. Herding can shape what we notice, believe, and buy.

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AI infrastructure spending is happening today, but depreciation can affect reported profitability for years. What should investors monitor as the AI cycle develops? Watch the video and visit our blog for the full analysis.
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2026’s rally is less dependent on the giants. The S&P 500’s Top 10 produced 38.9% of its YTD gain, vs. 57.3% in 2025 and ~68% in 2023-24. Broader participation strengthens the advance.

Src: Baird Strategas/Bloomberg 2026.08.31
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Can the Fed contain inflation while Washington runs large deficits? Our latest video and newsletter examine the relationship between fiscal policy, inflation, and interest rates. Watch the video and read the full analysis on our blog.
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S&P 500 concentration remains historically high: Top 10 stocks 39.3%, Top 5 30.1%, Tech 37.9%. Yet defensive sectors have fallen to 19.3%. The index increasingly reflects growth-oriented exposure.

Src: Baird | Strategas, Bloomberg 2026.09.04
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Bitcoin’s breakout vs. gold provides confirmation of the momentum signal we examined in “$40 Trillion of Debt, Bitcoin and the Search for a Store of Value.” Read it on our blog

Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Src: Baird | Strategas 2026.09.03
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September is historically weak, but midterm years have produced extremes: 4 of the 10 best AND 4 of the 10 worst Septembers since 1950. Strong momentum and midterm volatility can coexist.

Past performance ≠ future results.
Src: Baird | Strategas 2026.09.04
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Action bias isn’t always about making the wrong move. Sometimes, it’s about feeling like we must make one. When markets fall, pause and ask: is this a decision, or a reflex?

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