The Friday P.M. "Goldilocks" Charts| We publish five charts Fri afternoons showing the impact of current futures $$oil on Alaska's fiscal outlook and three alternatives for resolving it. (Background: bit.ly/3UhbLCZ) #akleg

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Alaska betting markets pull back sharply on Wilson for governor while chatbots barely move.

https://votingmonitor.org/races/AK-GOV #akleg

The Saturday Charts | Each Saturday, we compare current FY gross oil revs vs. DOR's most recent (NOW SPRING 26) F'cast. W/ 22% of FY27 booked, projected annual gross revs (blue) running ⬆️ 22% to SPRING '26 F'cast. Projected FY27 WAVG currently $92. #akleg

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Building

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 13.14% v PFC 6.27%
* 3-yr: S&P 21.35% v PFC 9.20%
* 1-yr: S&P 16.71% v PFC 11.36%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:

> FY27 ⬆️ $19 (+$944mil)
> FY28-36 ⬆️ $.60 (avg annual +$21mil)
#akleg

This Week's Column| This week, we explain how the ongoing spike in oil prices is creating a key fiscal policy issue for this election cycle that candidates for #akgov and the #akleg need to address. buff.ly/s2kHi7p

#akleg Good to see at least one Alaskan journalist is still tracking Dunleavy's OMB Director and her adventures in right-sizing. www.dermotcole.com/reportingfro...

In Alaska, PAs are now PHYSICIAN ASSOCIATES. We are no longer “physician assistants.” The title “Physician Associate” more honestly reflects the role PAs play in Alaska’s healthcare system. #akleg #physicianassociate #physicianassistant

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | The trend in the #akleg races helps us decide about the #akgov race, a new question for candidates to test their knowledge and approach to the state budget & why it’s time for another Ross Perot. #akleg buff.ly/QIWp1bb

Lisa Murkowski is pushing for geothermal and hydropower in Alaska. These bills appear to be mostly good. It’s refreshing to see something other than oil extraction and data centers being pushed as the only option for Alaska because they are not. #akleg

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 13.10% v PFC 6.27%
* 3-yr: S&P 21.31% v PFC 9.20%
* 1-yr: S&P 17.08% v PFC 11.36%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:

> FY27 ⬆️ $18 (+$891mil)
> FY28-36 ⬇️ $.50 (avg annual -$17mil)
#akleg

The Friday A.M. Charts| We publish 2 charts Friday mornings. #akleg

First, we chart YTD $$oil + the outlook from the current futures mkt v. DOR's most recent 10-year rev f'cast. Futures: near (⬆️ $10), mid (⬆️ $1) & long-term (⬇️ $8) v. SPRING26 F'cast (rev).

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Listening to the Commonwealth North governor candidate forum, and if @santaclausalaska.bsky.social, @repmina.bsky.social, Cathy Giessel, Mead Treadwell and @dermotcole.bsky.social are all there, so you know it's the place to be tonight. #akleg

Hey #akleg candidate and @marypeltola.com you can talk about climate change. It’s an economic crisis for many Alaskans.

This isn’t going to become law before the election but Sullivan will continue to pretend it’s something more than it is.

“A spokesman for the Peltola campaign called Sullivan’s current bill, introduced in June, “eleventh hour, election year legislation.”” #akleg

The good news? Most absentee ballots for the primary didn't arrive significantly later than usual.

The bad news? Ballots in some low-turnout districts arrived so late that they didn't even make the list of disqualified late ballots. #akleg #Alaska