I think what I find most galling about #Trump and #TheHormuzCrisis is the way he is so casual about wanting to kill people.

Iran has a brutal government and dangerous regime.

But this sociopath is willing to destroy lives to satisfy nothing but his own ego.

#TheHormuzCrisis Update

Hard to test the truth of the statement when the vessels were not using AIS so we just have to trust the USA on these figures.

What isn't disputable is that one seafarer died and another is still listed as a casualty after being hit while transiting.

I ended up on the menu page of the UKMTO warnings for the first time in a while.

Some people have been asking me "Just how unusual is all of the activity?"

Can not really be starker than this.

2024 - Yemen Conflict

2026 - #TheHormuzCrisis

Do you know that feeling you get as an analyst when all of the signs are pointing to something, and you are pretty sure it is because some people know more than they are letting on?

If not - look at this throwaway headline from 10 mins ago and you might...

#TheHormuzCrisis #OilFuturesRise$4

It looks like the UNGA side meetings did little to stabilise the oil price index.

I think that the remarks from both Presidents in #TheHormuzCrisis have set the tone too agressive.

With all that is going on, it is something to watch. Because this reflects the dangers of transiting right now...

Shameless plug time.

My book The Hormuz Crisis Volume 1: The Illusion of Open Seas - February to April 2026 is available if anyone wants to gain an understanding by strategic analysis of #TheHormuzCrisis.

Makes an excellent gift for that MAGA person you know that still doesn't get it...

Flash Update from the UKMTO

Another vessel has been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz - 2 casualties (no mention of severity) and all personnel evacuated.

This is the third such attack since the UNGA started and still not being picked up by media or politicians!!!

#TheHormuzCrisis

...

So I am really behind on events... I believe the phrase is "can't be everywhere..."

But a lot is happening - I will switch on the dashboards overnight and update in the morning...

This may be significant after #Trump's UN speeches...

#TheHormuzCrisis

UKMTO Alert

While tracking the last attack - the UKMTO has issued an alert for another attack that also occurred in the last few hours.

This time an LPG carrier attempting to transit outbound in Hormuz.

So two attacks on commercial shipping just today.

#TheHormuzCrisis #IranUSAWar

I have called over and over for Western governments to respond and sort out a humanitarian corridor for the trapped sailors of #TheHormuzCrisis.

Saudi Arabia turns off the taps to the west due to all the issues I have posted about - and suddenly it is a G7 matter…

So oil over lives again is it?

1/20
After the RNLI rage - back to #TheHormuzCrisis.

Saudi Arabia is changing tack as it has not found a way around Hormuz. It has built a relay through it.

That is a very different thing, and it tells us much more about where this crisis is heading than the headline oil price does right now.

Just in as of 2 mins ago - UKMTO reporting a “security incident”.

I will try to get more details but the reports are scant at the moment.

More proof #TheHormuzCrisis is far from over despite British media ignoring it in favour of a meaningless straw poll and some kids changing schools…

3/22

That is the systemic degradation I have worried about since the beginning of #TheHormuzCrisis and throughout my book.

The danger was never simply a strait being closed. It was universal commercial access being replaced by conditional, selective and politically managed access in practice.

1/22

Two stories in #TheHormuzCrisis caught me this morning.

The first is the reported US-Houthi understanding over Red Sea shipping.

The second is Saudi Arabia finding a new way to move crude through Oman after damage to its Red Sea export route and Yanbu.

Not that it is a contest.

But CENTCOM have bragged openly about targeting merchant ships.

WHICH ARE MANNED BY CIVILIANS!!

Iran has too. But two wrongs do not make a right.

We should not allow this to be normalised. It is abhorrent.

#TheHormuzCrisis #IranUSAWar

1/14

Five days ago I published a strategic analysis of #TheHormuzCrisis from Suez to Iraq.

This follow-up is not about proving I was “right”.

It is about testing whether the framework actually helped explain what happened next, where it did not, and what needs changing now as well.

Shall we all play a game?

Whom do we believe?

The world's media and the testimony of experts that all look at the scale of the damage and estimate weeks to recover capability.

or

The USA administration headed by a man that cheats at golf and on every one of his wives.

#TheHormuzCrisis #Trump

FLASH ##TheHormuzCrisis

The IRGC are claiming a supertanker has hit mines and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz.

US CENTCOM denies the claim - and says it was a vessel struck by missiles.

No word from the UKMTO - but I will keep watch.

11/11

This is the systemic degradation I keep talking of, and warned of in my book, #TheHormuzCrisis Volume 1.

Over the coming hours, watch for confirmation of the MQ-1 claim, evidence from Sirik, deployments to the Hanish islands, new NAVWARNs and changes in escorted commercial traffic.

1/11

I was watching and waiting but my dashboards remained quiet overnight.

The limited reporting since yesterday however reinforces the central conclusion of my weekend strategic briefing.

There have been genuine updates this morning though that need to be looked at.

#TheHormuzCrisis #YemenWar