1/4
Tonight I’m slowing down.
After the market sweeps of the last few days, I picked one US company and decided to sit with the case properly:
Entegris $ENTG
I have no idea where this goes yet.
#SystemMargin

3 that made it through:

$HWM
Aerospace structures & engine components.

$BWXT
Nuclear components & reactor tech.

$TDG Difficult-to-replace aerospace components.

Different businesses.

Same SM question:

Where is the constraint, who controls the rent-bearing link?
#BWXT #SystemMargin

New Track Record
SSE $SSE
28.09.2026
Another result from last night’s work.
4 independent screens. 4 times the same result.
SSE joins the System Margin Track Record today.
Reference price: £20.20 (25.09.2026 close).
Let’s see where this one goes.
#SSE #SystemMargin

New Track Record
PVA TePla
$TPE
28.09.2026
Another case enters the official System Margin Track Record.
Reference price: €30.48 (25.09.2026 close).
No idea where this case will go. But I'll be watching it.
#PVATePla #SystemMargin

A long day working on System Margin, and there’s finally a concrete result.

PLAB (Photronics) officially enters the Track Record today.

Entry: 25 Sep 2026
Reference close: $30.40

Now no more theory. We watch what reality does.

#PLAB #SystemMargin

Constraints drive markets.

AI growth doesn’t stop at GPUs.
Power, transformers, grid connections, cooling and critical metals can become the bottlenecks 2–3 levels upstream.

I look for the bottleneck the market hasn’t priced yet.

Process over narrative.

#SystemMargin

Track Record: +3 cases 📈
Mitsui Kinzoku, Nitto Boseki, AXT - added this week, which seriously wrecked my sleep 😅
23,025 JPY, 2,956 JPY, 78.94 USD - closing prices, as always.
11 cases on record. Tired but happy - the work is paying off.
Track Record ≠ buy list.
#SystemMargin #RiskFirst

Cleveland-Cliffs basically owns GOES production in the US. Looked like a clean bottleneck story. Then you dig in and realize they don't even break out GOES numbers from the rest of steel. Can't see the rent, can't buy the story. NO T0. #SystemMargin

Not every interesting company makes my System Margin Track Record.

Watchlist = interesting, but still something to prove.

Track Record = full SM test passed. Now reality gets the final word.

Watchlist is observation. TR is the real-world test. 👀

#SystemMargin

1/7
Everyone's hunting for the bottleneck at the wrong level.
"There's a transformer shortage" isn't the problem. It's the symptom. Sounds great in a slide deck, though.
A transformer without a bushing is a pile of metal.
#RiskFirst #SystemMargin

I tried to break System Margin.

Not to change it, but to see if it rejects good cases.

One weak spot was real: economic materiality.

Rent duration and valuation survived the test unchanged.

Sometimes the best audit result is: change nothing.

#SystemMargin

12 companies. One list. No guessing what goes up next.

My System Margin process selected these for autumn:

KGHM, CME, ICE, S&P Global, Copart, Visa, Moody’s, Verisign, Synopsys, Cadence, Ajinomoto, Meridian Mining.

Now the hard part:

At today’s price, is the asymmetry still there?

#SystemMargin

AI needs more and more power. And this is where it gets interesting.

Gas turbines can take years to deliver. So the industry is looking for other ways to power new data centers faster.

That’s where a bottleneck could emerge.

Not always where everyone is looking.

#SystemMargin

2/
But it sells on purchase orders and still competes on price.
Owning something scarce does not automatically mean you capture the rent from it.
Geographic lock-in ≠ rent lock-in.
Two companies is a tiny sample. Nothing is disproved.
It's just not confirmed.
#SystemMargin #USLM

Tweet 10
MP Materials:
Discovery PASS. NO T0.
The story is real. The mechanism works.
The problem is the price.
Too much of the future has to go right.
Sometimes the right conclusion is not buy.
The story is real. The price is the problem.
#SystemMargin

Post 2
That film is ABF. It insulates the chip inside its package. Without it, there are no modern processors.
Who controls it and who makes money from it? Ajinomoto. Yes, the same company that makes soup seasoning.
Sep 19, 2026
#SystemMargin #Ajinomoto

Tweet 2/2:Now they are launching their own transformer plant in Weirton.They control the physical bottleneck, consume their own supply, and capture the full economic rent themselves.You get critical power grid infrastructure at a P/S of 0.35. #SystemMargin

Tweet 1/2:The market treats $CLF as a toxic steel mill with a net loss. Short interest at 14% is crushing the stock.Wrong question.Cliffs controls 100% of US GOES steel production. Without these thin sheets(<0.23 mm), you can’t build transformers for AI data centers #SystemMargin

8/8
Strategic Bottlenecks remains an active Discovery direction.
The lesson from this round is simple:
Don't just find the shortage.
Find the economic position created by the shortage.
Then test whether it is durable enough to matter.
#SystemMargin #RiskFirst

DLA says Elmet Technologies is currently the only available U.S. source capable of producing certain refractory metal wires in the required grades and quantities.

That is a bottleneck.

The $2B tungsten program is a different story.

System Margin separates the two.

#SystemMargin #CriticalMinerals