September has historically been the S&P 500's weakest month, but 2026 entered it with strong momentum. What can these competing signals tell investors?

Watch our latest video and visit our blog for the full analysis.

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Market weakness is broadening. 38% of S&P 500 stocks hit 20-day lows yesterday, up from 31% last week. Our research identifies 50%+ during an uptrend as worth watching. Not there yet—but closer.

Src: Baird | Strategas 2026.09.10
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AI infrastructure spending is happening today, but depreciation can affect reported profitability for years. What should investors monitor as the AI cycle develops? Watch the video and visit our blog for the full analysis.
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2026’s rally is less dependent on the giants. The S&P 500’s Top 10 produced 38.9% of its YTD gain, vs. 57.3% in 2025 and ~68% in 2023-24. Broader participation strengthens the advance.

Src: Baird Strategas/Bloomberg 2026.08.31
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Can the Fed contain inflation while Washington runs large deficits? Our latest video and newsletter examine the relationship between fiscal policy, inflation, and interest rates. Watch the video and read the full analysis on our blog.
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S&P 500 concentration remains historically high: Top 10 stocks 39.3%, Top 5 30.1%, Tech 37.9%. Yet defensive sectors have fallen to 19.3%. The index increasingly reflects growth-oriented exposure.

Src: Baird | Strategas, Bloomberg 2026.09.04
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Bitcoin’s breakout vs. gold provides confirmation of the momentum signal we examined in “$40 Trillion of Debt, Bitcoin and the Search for a Store of Value.” Read it on our blog

Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Src: Baird | Strategas 2026.09.03
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September is historically weak, but midterm years have produced extremes: 4 of the 10 best AND 4 of the 10 worst Septembers since 1950. Strong momentum and midterm volatility can coexist.

Past performance ≠ future results.
Src: Baird | Strategas 2026.09.04
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August payrolls sharpened the debate over the Fed’s September confab. A hike may dominate expectations, but history offers a counterpoint: at comparable 3-month payroll growth, the Fed raised rates within 6 months just 9% of the time.

Src: Baird | Strategas 2026.09.04
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September tests trends, not forecasts. For the S&P 500, I’m watching the 63-day EMA, 63-day price low and 250-day EMA as support. Holding them would keep the broader uptrend intact.

Src: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2026.09.01
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