The Friday P.M. "Goldilocks" Charts| We publish five charts Fri afternoons showing the impact of current futures $$oil on Alaska's fiscal outlook and three alternatives for resolving it. (Background: bit.ly/3UhbLCZ) #akleg

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This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | Was there any real progress last week on #AKLNG, diving deeper than the press releases on the APFC’s performance & the House Majority proves again their “concern” about working #AKfams is a stage prop. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-weekly-top-3-1052026

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 13.68% v PFC 6.11%
* 3-yr: S&P 23.29% v PFC 9.89%
* 1-yr: S&P 16.32% v PFC 10.37%

The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg

FY27:
> Spring RF: $75
> Avg FYTD: $91
> +Futures: $99 (+$1.19bn)

FY28-36:
> Spring RF: $71
> Futures: $73 (+$84mil)

The Friday A.M. Charts| We publish 2 charts Friday mornings. #akleg

First, we chart YTD $$oil + the outlook from the current futures mkt v. DOR's most recent 10-year rev f'cast. Futures: near (⬆️ $17), mid (⬆️ $4) & long-term (⬇️ $5) v. SPRING26 F'cast (rev).

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This Week's Column| Some cite Medicaid and a couple of other cherry-picked programs to rationalize using only PFD cuts to close the state’s ongoing deficits. We explain why the argument is deeply flawed. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-friday-column-a-few-cherry-picked

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | Was there any real progress last week on #AKLNG, diving deeper than the press releases on the APFC’s performance & the House Majority proves again their “concern” about working #AKfams is a stage prop. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-weekly-top-3-1052026

Alaska chatbots still pick incumbent Begich for the House seat, while markets are even more confident.

https://votingmonitor.org/races/AK-AL-HOUSE/ #akleg

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 13.75% v PFC 6.11%
* 3-yr: S&P 23.48% v PFC 9.89%
* 1-yr: S&P 17.55% v PFC 10.37%

The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg

FY27:
> Spring RF: $75
> Avg FYTD: $90
> +Futures: $97 (+$1.10bn)

FY28-36:
> Spring RF: $71
> Futures: $73 (+$79mil)

The Thursday Charts| We publish two charts Thursdays. #akleg

Using the prior yr's production profile as a baseline, the first charts YTD production levels compared w/the most recent F'cast (now SPRING26). W/ 27% of FY27 done, YTD avg (red) running -23kbd (-5%) v. F'cast.

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Debates ARE really important for elections & democracy! I trust these public media outlets & this professional journalist to offer a fair & impartial process.

I’m hoping the other media outlets can do something similar with the reader-generated questions they have.

#akleg #akelect #akgov

Alaska should ban shock gloves. #akleg

This Week's Column| Some cite Medicaid and a couple of other cherry-picked programs to rationalize using only PFD cuts to close the state’s ongoing deficits. We explain why the argument is deeply flawed. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-friday-column-a-few-cherry-picked

Alaska chatbots still pick Kreiss-Tomkins for governor, and the betting markets back him even harder.

https://votingmonitor.org/races/AK-GOV/ #akleg

The knee-jerk response of many #akleg: we need more gov't services (K-12, child care, etc).

Our response: #WhoPays?

Theirs: PFD cuts.

Ours: Ah, the death spiral. Killing the patient (by reducing the income of middle-income #AKfams even more) to "save" them.

buff.ly/vHZxEQL