explore | Grilled Cheese

Alaska chatbots keep favoring Begich for the House seat, and the betting markets favor him even more.

https://votingmonitor.org/races/AK-AL-HOUSE #akleg

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 13.18% v PFC 6.27%
* 3-yr: S&P 22.87% v PFC 9.20%
* 1-yr: S&P 17.43% v PFC 11.36%

The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg

FY27:
> Spring RF: $75
> Actual FYTD: $90
> +Futures: $95 (+$984mil)

FY28-36:
> Spring RF: $71
> Futures: $70 (-$12mil)

The Friday A.M. Charts| We publish 2 charts Friday mornings. #akleg

First, we chart YTD $$oil + the outlook from the current futures mkt v. DOR's most recent 10-year rev f'cast. Futures: near (⬆️ $13), mid (⬆️ $2) & long-term (⬇️ $7) v. SPRING26 F'cast (rev).

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Is it unusual for a US Senator to be a raging asshole? Obviously not, but that doesn’t mean we should make excuses for it just because the other guy is worse.

Hard to believe a lot of the #akleg #akelect people on here would be so gracious if this story was about Sullivan or Begich.

This Week's Column| This week, we explain how the ongoing spike in oil prices is creating a key fiscal policy issue for this election cycle that candidates for #akgov and the #akleg need to address. buff.ly/O9RZ36h

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | Bronson & Taylor fall for a trap on the Permanent Fund, we update household income levels and explain tax rates by income bracket & how making Alaska affordable for some makes it less so for others. #akleg buff.ly/lo6fJTJ

#akleg Which journalist has the story on the gubernatorial candidate's picks for Fat Bear Week?

Alaska prediction markets pull back on Kreiss-Tomkins, but chatbots still trail the market view by nearly 35 points for governor

https://votingmonitor.org/races/AK-GOV #akleg

PFD Estimates| Monthly, as information becomes available, we post the most recent projections of gross PFD levels over the current forecast period under 5 alternatives: statutory, POMV 50/50, POMV 33/67, POMV 25/75, and "Leftover." #akleg

Investment Charts| We publish the following five charts monthly after the APFC financial statements are posted. All are current through August 2026. #akleg

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The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 13.22% v PFC 6.27%
* 3-yr: S&P 22.88% v PFC 9.20%
* 1-yr: S&P 17.12% v PFC 11.36%

The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg

FY27:
> Spring RF: $75
> Actual FYTD: $90
> +Futures: $94 (+$925mil)

FY28-36:
> Spring RF: $71
> Futures: $71 (even)

The Thursday Charts| We publish two charts Thursdays. #akleg

Using the prior yr's production profile as a baseline, the first charts YTD production levels compared w/the most recent F'cast (now SPRING26). W/ 23% of FY27 done, YTD avg (red) running -17kbd (-4%) v. F'cast.

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PPAA – Alaska joins the growing list of local doctors and organizations calling on Senators Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan to oppose Heidi Overton's nomination as FDA Commissioner. #Alaska #AkLeg #Murkowski #PlannedParenthood

The Wednesday Chart| To help better understand the primary market for ANS, we look at the supply to USWC refiners each Wed:

YTD 2026 avg USWC (approx % of pre (2019)- and post (2022)-COVID levels):
> Crude demand: 82% & 90%;
> Domestic share: 84% & 97%.
#akleg

Alaska chatbots still put Kreiss-Tomkins well below what betting markets expect for governor.

https://votingmonitor.org/races/AK-GOV #akleg