#akleg

This Week's Column| Closing Alaska’s fiscal gap with PFD cuts puts 2½ times the burden, as a share of income, on middle-income households as on the top 20%. Once you see the disproportionate impact, you can’t unsee it. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-friday-column-once-you-see-the

Alaska chatbots still pick Kreiss-Tomkins for governor, but they lag well behind what the betting markets expect.

https://votingmonitor.org/races/AK-GOV #akleg

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 13.65% v PFC 6.27%
* 3-yr: S&P 22.95% v PFC 9.20%
* 1-yr: S&P 17.01% v PFC 11.36%

The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg

FY27:
> Spring RF: $75
> Actual FYTD: $90
> +Futures: $96 (+$1.0bn)

FY28-36:
> Spring RF: $71
> Futures: $72 (+$32mil)

The Tuesday Chart| #akleg Given Southcentral winter service concerns, we have started a new weekly chart tracking the current status of the two commercial Cook Inlet gas storage fields, based on the public dashboards each maintains, as well as the most recent aggregate (all fields) DNR Dashboard.

Are you interested in helping PPAA - Alaska elect reproductive health care & LGBTQ+ rights champions? Sign up to phone bank and/or knock on doors this election season! We have in person and virtual options.

➡️ Sign up here: plannedp.info/events

#AkLeg #AkElect #Alaska

If Alaska wanted to enable communities without access to polls or polling places that are difficult to staff they could offer this to other Alaskans. It bypasses the USPS mail voting and it’s fast and easy. #akleg

As an absentee overseas voter I get my ballot almost immediately. Then you get a login code. You vote your ballot and download it. The ballot then has a QR code. I can fax back my ballot almost immediately. #akleg

This week's Top 3| Just how big are Alaska's tax expenditures? We do some dollar tracing. And coming attractions: after defined benefits & K-12, childcare. #WhoPays? The proponents, who cares. #akleg T'row 6:05a on The Michael Dukes Show at buff.ly/7wk5op2

Republicans want kids to have guns.
I don’t think Alaska has safe storage laws. #akleg

Applying U.S. income-group spending patterns to Anchorage/Mat-Su prices, here is an estimate of 2026 YTD inflation vs. 2025 by income bracket. Middle & lower-income households show higher inflation thru 2Q 2026. #akleg

Alaska chatbots still trail markets on Democrat Jonathan Kreiss Tomkins for governor

https://votingmonitor.org/races/AK-GOV #akleg

Alaska chatbots still pick Begich, but markets are more confident

https://votingmonitor.org/races/AK-AL-HOUSE #akleg

This Week's Column| Closing Alaska’s fiscal gap with PFD cuts puts 2½ times the burden, as a share of income, on middle-income households as on the top 20%. Once you see the disproportionate impact, you can’t unsee it. #akleg buff.ly/UfNE3ZK

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 13.30% v PFC 6.27%
* 3-yr: S&P 22.92% v PFC 9.20%
* 1-yr: S&P 18.62% v PFC 11.36%

The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg

FY27:
> Spring RF: $75
> Actual FYTD: $90
> +Futures: $95 (+$997mil)

FY28-36:
> Spring RF: $71
> Futures: $71 (+$27mil)

The Monday Charts | Consistent with the approach explained at bit.ly/3QhAUju, each Monday we compare current futures market prices for projected #AKLNG in-state-only (Phase 1) and #AKLNG export (Phase 2) prices against market alternatives. #akleg

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | Bronson & Taylor fall for a trap on the Permanent Fund, we update household income levels and explain tax rates by income bracket & how making Alaska affordable for some makes it less so for others. #akleg buff.ly/lo6fJTJ

This Week's Column| Closing Alaska’s fiscal gap with PFD cuts puts 2½ times the burden, as a share of income, on middle-income households as on the top 20%. Once you see the disproportionate impact, you can’t unsee it. #akleg buff.ly/UfNE3ZK