I ran the numbers for each "starting year" - if you started investing in 2000 for example and invested all future PFDs, you'd have a cool $241,390

benjmatheson.substack.com/p/if-you-had... #akleg

To celebrate the 2026 Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend, I calculated what you could have earned in the stock market if you had invested all of your PFDs in the S&P 500.

Starting in '82: $930,644 🚀 📈.

benjmatheson.substack.com/p/if-you-had... #akleg

Exports as a %ANS| Due to COVID, a material share of ANS was exported to Asian (primarily Chinese) mkts from 2Q 2020 to 1Q 2022. However, from shortly after the start of the Ukraine War (Apr22), most has gone to the USWC, w/ only sporadic dels (CY26 YTD: 4%) to Asia. #akleg

USWC Supply Chart| Monthly as data becomes available from EIA we take a look at supply sources into PADD V (USWC) refineries. #akleg

YTD (thru Jul), Alaska running ⬆️ 2.6% v. 2019 USWC mkt share (21.5% v 18.9%), but due to lower demand, vols ⬇️ 47kbd (401kbd). US sources 44.2% of total USWC supplies.

Rolling Avg Prices & Differentials | To track relationships monthly, we look at the average prices for and the differentials between ANS, Brent & WTI on a rolling 12-, 6-, 3-, 1-month, and FYTD basis. We then incorporate those into our daily pricing outlooks. #akleg #akoil

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 13.58% v PFC 6.11%
* 3-yr: S&P 22.97% v PFC 9.89%
* 1-yr: S&P 15.57% v PFC 10.37%

The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg

FY27:
> Spring RF: $75
> Actual FYTD: $90
> +Futures: $96 (+$1.05bn)

FY28-36:
> Spring RF: $71
> Futures: $72 (+$30mil)

The Friday A.M. Charts| We publish 2 charts Friday mornings. #akleg

First, we chart YTD $$oil + the outlook from the current futures mkt v. DOR's most recent 10-year rev f'cast. Futures: near (⬆️ $14), mid (⬆️ $3) & long-term (⬇️ $6) v. SPRING26 F'cast (rev).

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Alaska’s Constitution says public money can’t be spent on private schools yet it is. Why hasn’t this been stopped? Why isn’t there oversight? #akleg

spoke on a panel today at the US Alcohol Policy Alliance Conference in DC. My panel was designed to help attendees understand how to get meaningful alcohol-related legislation passed. This is my answer, basically for how to champion any issue. #akleg #USAPA #alcoholpolicy

This Week's Column| Closing Alaska’s fiscal gap with PFD cuts puts 2½ times the burden, as a share of income, on middle-income households as on the top 20%. Once you see the disproportionate impact, you can’t unsee it. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-friday-column-once-you-see-the

Random note: WHAT’S THAT SMELL!

#AKLNG #Alaska #akleg

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast |The significance of Alaska’s tax expenditures, in whose pockets do PFD cuts end up & how using PFD cuts to fund state childcare and other subsidies leads to a death spiral for middle-income Alaskans. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-weekly-top-3-9282026

Alaska chatbots still pick Kreiss Tomkins for governor, well behind what betting markets expect.

https://votingmonitor.org/races/AK-GOV/ #akleg

#akleg The announcement about AKLNG either shouldn't be taken seriously or else the legislature did a great job in protecting value for Alaskans by not reducing property taxes on the project.

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 13.79% v PFC 6.27%
* 3-yr: S&P 22.89% v PFC 9.20%
* 1-yr: S&P 15.74% v PFC 11.36%

The 8:30a Chart| For reference, we publish daily (ex-Su) running avgs of FY27-36 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actuals + futures. Projected revs are +Futures v. SPRING26 Rev F'cast. #akleg

FY27:
> Spring RF: $75
> Actual FYTD: $90
> +Futures: $94 (+$940mil)

FY28-36:
> Spring RF: $71
> Futures: $72 (+$49mil)

The Thursday Charts| We publish two charts Thursdays. #akleg

Using the prior yr's production profile as a baseline, the first charts YTD production levels compared w/the most recent F'cast (now SPRING26). W/ 25% of FY27 done, YTD avg (red) running -14kbd (-3%) v. F'cast.

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