So, we recommend DfE reviews its timetable for reducing reliance on EHCPs. If ministers no longer believe that timetable is achievable, they should either revise it, or strengthen the reforms needed to deliver it. [8/9]

3️⃣There is a risk that reforms themselves could fuel demand for EHCPs in the short-term. With uncertainty over what will replace EHCPs, who will qualify, and the fact that children who secure one before 2029 will retain it, the reforms create a “use it before you lose it” dynamic. [7/9]

And until the law is changed, councils will remain bound by the current legal framework for EHCP eligibility. [6/9]

2️⃣ It assumes EHCP growth will slow *before* its reforms are fully rolled out in 2030. It's unclear how this will happen. Investments made now will take time to bear fruit - as govt recognised when it opted for a slower, phased approach to reform. [5/9]

There are a few more reasons to doubt the feasibility of the govt's projections: 1️⃣ Govt is starting from a higher level than it expected. It made its projections using 2025 data, but EHCPs rose by a record amount (13%) between 2025 and 2026. [4/9]

But the assumptions baked into reform plans look optimistic. If growth in EHCPs continues at the average rate of the last few years (rather than accelerate further as it has consistently done) almost 1 in 10 pupils would be receiving an EHCP by 2030. DfE’s modelling puts that figure at 7.7%. [3/9]

Govt has a huge amount riding on its ability to make progress reducing EHCPs: - Getting to a preventative SEND system - Political credibility - Meeting its spending plans for this parliament [2/9]

The first excellent installment in this year's Performance Tracker looks at the state of the schools system in England Read below for info on: - the impact of SEND reforms - what academisation means for Burnham's reform agenda - progress on teacher recruitment And more

So, we recommend DfE reviews its timetable for reducing reliance on EHCPs. If ministers no longer believe that timetable is achievable, they should either revise it, or strengthen the reforms needed to deliver it. [8/9]

3️⃣There is a risk that reforms themselves could fuel demand for EHCPs in the short-term. With uncertainty over what will replace EHCPs, who will qualify, and the fact that children who secure one before 2029 will retain it, the reforms create a “use it before you lose it” dynamic. [7/9]

And until the law is changed, councils will remain bound by the current legal framework for EHCP eligibility. [6/9]

2️⃣ It assumes EHCP growth will slow *before* its reforms are fully rolled out in 2030. It's unclear how this will happen. Investments made now will take time to bear fruit - as govt recognised when it opted for a slower, phased approach to reform. [5/9]

There are a few more reasons to doubt the feasibility of the govt's projections: 1️⃣ Govt is starting from a higher level than it expected. It made its projections using 2025 data, but EHCPs rose by a record amount (13%) between 2025 and 2026. [4/9]

Good news, and... One of the big positives in the Starmer govt’s approach was its move beyond a narrow focus on rough sleeping. Burnham should make sure this pledge sits within a broader prevention strategy - not simply drive more spending on poor-value temporary accommodation to meet the target