@pollbludger.bsky.social
Publisher of the Australian elections and polling website pollbludger.net
@pollbludger.bsky.socialIntroducing the Poll Bludger's Victorian election guide and seats projection model. Current reading: L-NP 45, ALP 25, ON 15, GRN 3. pollbludger.net/2026/09/29/v...
@pollbludger.bsky.socialAll over now in Secret Harbour -- 13,000+ votes added from Secret Harbour Early Polling Place (around half the total count) are even stronger for One Nation that those counted earlier. www.pollbludger.net/2026/08/29/s...
@pollytics.bsky.socialReposted by @pollbludger.bsky.socialI had access to old Labor party scrutineer stuff when I was doing things in Qld, and historically, it wasn't irregular that in seats where One Nation got the highest first preference, they also got the highest last preference. That carried across through time, and seems kind of apt elsewhere now.
@pollbludger.bsky.socialAfter Farrer, this is the second by-election where I've been surprised by One Nation's weak preference flow: grist for the theory that the remaining Lib voters are moderates. Also (very likely) the second by-election where it ultimately didn't matter.
@pollbludger.bsky.socialA bit of a wrinkle here: the first TCP results show preferences flowing surprisingly heavily to Labor. My system is still calling it for One Nation, but I'm no longer sure that it should be.
@pollbludger.bsky.socialLooking good for One Nation in Secret Harbour. My results system is calling it for them, and it's doing so on the basis of a more modest projection than the ABC's (7.7% margin rather than 10.5%). www.pollbludger.net/2026/08/29/s...
@pollbludger.bsky.socialFirst result from Secret Harbour is a batch of 1277 postals. It's more than consistent with a One Nation win, though Labor can hope on the tendency of early batches of postals to lean conservative. Full coverage: www.pollbludger.net/2026/08/29/s...