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James Hay

@jameshay.bsky.social

598 Following1.5k Followers

Research Fellow at the Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford. Using maths and stats to understand infectious disease dynamics, mostly viral kinetics and serology. https://hay-idd.github.io/

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@marilenharo.bsky.socialOct 6, 2026, 3:20 PMReposted by @jameshay.bsky.social

The flu season seems to be off to an early start in the Northern Hemisphere and scientists are worried about one particular mutation. That means it's a good idea to go get vaccinated as soon as possible!

I wrote about what the early data tell us: www.nature.com/articles/d41...

@jameshay.bsky.socialOct 2, 2026, 9:52 AM

Now published in PLOS Global Health! @mhairijan.bsky.social journals.plos.org/globalpublic...

@jameshay.bsky.socialSep 18, 2026, 7:47 PM

I hope that by making serosolver and other tools increasingly accessible and flexible, we can move the field towards a more mature state on par with Rt estimation and phylodynamics! Please do check it out, and get in touch if this is something you’re interested in.

@jameshay.bsky.socialSep 18, 2026, 7:47 PM

Methods to get the most information from serological data are still fairly specialist, though there have been some great developments in the past few years (e.g., serocalculator ucd-serg.github.io/serocalculat..., serofoi epiverse-trace.github.io/serofoi/ and serojump seroanalytics.org/serojump/).

@jameshay.bsky.socialSep 18, 2026, 7:47 PM

Each one of these projects required a new feature or modification to serosolver, which I’ve finally managed (with the help of my colleague Dr. Luna GPT) to bundle together into a single stable version with comprehensive documentation and vignettes.

@jameshay.bsky.socialSep 18, 2026, 7:47 PM

Seasonal norovirus GII.4 variant serology from children in England, used to estimate annual exposures and antibody kinetics across variants: doi.org/10.64898/202...

@jameshay.bsky.socialSep 18, 2026, 7:47 PM

SARS-CoV-2 neutralising-antibody profiles from Malawi to estimate variant=-specific antibody dynamics and urban/rural differences in infection rates: doi.org/10.64898/202...

@jameshay.bsky.socialSep 18, 2026, 7:47 PM

Since then, serosolver has been used for multiple pathogens, including: Estimating age-specific antibody dynamics for multiple respiratory viruses in King County, USA: doi.org/10.1038/s414...

@jameshay.bsky.socialSep 18, 2026, 7:47 PM

This release is a long overdue documentation and interface update following multiple extensions over the past few years. serosolver was published in 2020 (doi.org/10.1371/jour...), born out of my PhD work estimating 1000s of flu infections from multi-strain serology (doi.org/10.1371/jour...).

@jameshay.bsky.socialSep 18, 2026, 7:47 PM

serosolver's USP is that it's flexible enough to work for other antigenically variable pathogens (like SARS-CoV-2), using antigenic maps as input data to disentangle cross-reactive responses. However, it also accommodates pathogens/questions where we only need to consider a single antigen.

@jameshay.bsky.socialSep 18, 2026, 7:47 PM

What does the package do? serosolver takes individual-level serological data to jointly estimate lifetime infection histories and antibody kinetics. We originally developed the model to analyse influenza antibody landscapes, where accounting for cross-reactivity between strains is essential.

@jameshay.bsky.socialSep 18, 2026, 7:47 PM

Are you interested in using serology to detect hidden infections, model immune responses, and estimate epidemic dynamics? You may be interested in the new 1.2.0 release of the R package, serosolver: seroanalytics.org/serosolver/i...

Photo, no description
@jameshay.bsky.socialSep 18, 2026, 7:43 PM

SARS-CoV-2 neutralising-antibody profiles from Malawi to estimate variant-specific antibody dynamics and urban/rural differences in infection rates: doi.org/10.64898/202...

Photo, no description
@jameshay.bsky.socialSep 18, 2026, 7:43 PM

Since then, serosolver has been used for multiple pathogens, including:

Estimating age-specific antibody dynamics for multiple respiratory viruses in King County, USA: doi.org/10.1038/s414...

Photo, no description
@jameshay.bsky.socialSep 18, 2026, 7:43 PM

This release is a long overdue documentation and interface update following multiple extensions over the past few years. serosolver was published in 2020 (doi.org/10.1371/jour...), born out of my PhD work estimating 1000s of flu infections from multi-strain serology (doi.org/10.1371/jour...).

Photo, no description
@jameshay.bsky.socialSep 18, 2026, 7:43 PM

serosolver's USP is that it's flexible enough to work for other antigenically variable pathogens (like SARS-CoV-2), using antigenic maps as input data to disentangle cross-reactive responses. However, it also accommodates pathogens/questions where we only need to consider a single antigen.

@jameshay.bsky.socialSep 18, 2026, 7:43 PM

What does the package do? serosolver takes individual-level serological data to jointly estimate lifetime infection histories and antibody kinetics. We originally developed the model to analyse influenza antibody landscapes, where accounting for cross-reactivity between strains is essential.

Photo, no description
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