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René Duba 🅿️

@reneduba.bsky.social

4.8k Following3.1k Followers

Conflict analyst 🅿️ (parked here) Chat = not used

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@jayinkyiv.bsky.socialOct 2, 2026, 7:25 PMReposted by @reneduba.bsky.social

Collapsing industry and failed bond auctions - Russia's perfect economic storm gains momentum.
youtu.be/ZAShbFkK3EA

@reneduba.bsky.socialOct 3, 2026, 5:58 AM

Given the large number of unidentifiable bodies, there could be many Russian soldiers among them. Russia doesn't care anyhow.

@reneduba.bsky.socialOct 2, 2026, 8:30 AM

No. The Russian problem is that many of their cracking towers have been destroyed. So the can go on producing diesel and gasoline by destillation, but that leaves large amounts of heavy oil that should be fed to cracking installations elsewhere: i.e. a transport problem. 2/2

@reneduba.bsky.socialOct 2, 2026, 8:30 AM

According to Ukraine's estimates Russian refining capacity has gone down by 45%. Western estimates vary between 25-40% Diesel specifically is down by 30%, gasoline by 20% but that is based on data from June 2025 compared to June 2026. Is that all? 1/2

@reneduba.bsky.socialOct 2, 2026, 8:11 AM

Putin bore responsibillity for the murder of: Ernst Zimmermann (German), Edward Pimental (American), Frank Scarton (American), Becky Bristol (American), Karl Heinz Beckurts (German), Eckhard Groppler (German), Gerold von Braunmühl (German), Alfred Herrhausen (German). 4/4

@reneduba.bsky.socialOct 2, 2026, 8:11 AM

Is this relevant to predicting Vladimir Putin's present behaviour? Yes, it is. People tend to continue doing what they always did. Putin set up sabotage in the west during the late eighties and he does the same thing nowadays. Specifically, back in the eighties? 3/4

@reneduba.bsky.socialOct 2, 2026, 8:11 AM

The DDR provided a safe haven to terrorists who feared that West German police or intelligence had sniffed them out. At the same time a new generation of terrorists continued their acts of sabotage with the KGB's help.

www.politico.eu/arti...
2/4

@reneduba.bsky.socialOct 2, 2026, 8:11 AM

Rote Armee Fraktion / Baader-Meinhof gang were the footsoldiers of the KGB and the Stasi committing murder and acts of sabotage in West Germany. They were provided military equipment, guns and money by the KGB's station in Dresden where Putin was their contact. 1/4

@reneduba.bsky.socialSep 25, 2026, 7:44 PM

not true

@reneduba.bsky.socialSep 17, 2026, 6:19 AM

We know however that the upward 'bump' around 2010 (starting in 2000) in US military spending had to do with the war on terror, Iraq, Afghanistan and we know that this spending was real and substantial. But yes, the DOD is being overcharged by US defence contractors.

@reneduba.bsky.socialSep 17, 2026, 5:57 AM

Yabloko candidate Grigory Grishin was accused of "extremism" because of having mentioned the name "Navalny" in the past. What more does the WH need? Blindfolds? Earplugs? Remember the tobacco executives who testified that they believed nicotine was not addictive? (1994) 2/2

@reneduba.bsky.socialSep 17, 2026, 5:57 AM

Yabloko was the only Russian party that campaigned for peace with Ukraine. It was removed from the ballot. Local representatives arrested on fabricated charges. What should that tell Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner about Putin's assurance he wants peace? BBC: 1/2

@reneduba.bsky.socialSep 16, 2026, 9:35 PM

After the 1980s most NATO countries spent less and less on defence. What does that tell us about Putin's tale of aggressive 'NATO expansion' threatening Russia? The story doesn't match the numbers.

@maks23.bsky.socialAug 29, 2026, 8:29 AMReposted by @reneduba.bsky.social

😎 Soldiers of SIGNUM battalion, in cooperation with the allied units, destroyed the enemy MLRS "Uragan" worth about $1,000,000

@reneduba.bsky.socialAug 29, 2026, 2:27 PM

😊

@maks23.bsky.socialAug 29, 2026, 11:16 AMReposted by @reneduba.bsky.social

🔥 On August 24, Magyar reported on a successful strike on the base of the Russian special forces SOBR in Strilkovo, Kherson region. ☠️ Police Lieutenant Colonel Lyubov Ponomareva, officer for especially important cases, who had recently served in Russian Guard as part of SOBR, was eliminated.

@reneduba.bsky.socialAug 28, 2026, 11:35 AM

Now they have two training Tu-95s...

@maks23.bsky.socialAug 28, 2026, 7:46 AMReposted by @reneduba.bsky.social

💀 Major Sergei Sergeevich Sechkov was allegedly liquidated yesterday in St. Petersburg, - Russian channels

@maks23.bsky.socialAug 28, 2026, 8:16 AMReposted by @reneduba.bsky.social

🔥 Operators of the 1st separate SBS center, together with other components of AFU, struck Yaroslavl refinery "Slavneft-YANOS". ⚠️The distance to the target is more than 700 km from the state border of Ukraine.

@noelreports.comAug 28, 2026, 8:26 AMReposted by @reneduba.bsky.social

Ukraine's SOF confirmed the strike on the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in Yaroslavl, describing it as one of Russia's five largest refining facilities. A fire was recorded at the site and the extent of the damage is still being assessed. The refinery has capacity of 15 million tons of oil per year.

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