The labour mkt continues to weaken at what is a disconcerting pace.
The unemployment rate is at a 5 yr high of 4.7%; hours worked is weakening & employment dumped 40,000 in Sep. The employment to pop ratio has slumped to a 4½ yr low of 63.6% (it was 64.4% a yr ago)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVUh...

The next 5 days - data & events in the week ahead.
The labour force will have all eyes on the unemployment rate.
The NAB survey will present news on business conditions while minutes of the Sep meeting of the RBA will outline the debate on the rate hike.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUb3...

Govt debt steady as small business, not the govt, put their future on the credit card.
There was also the poor decision to allow small business to pay their tax debts via credit card without a surcharge
www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-D0...

House building: Supply is up, up & away. Commencements, under construction & completions all rising.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLNu...

The next 5 days.
It’s one of those weeks with a downpour of economic news.
The RBA, CPI, household spending, building approvals & house prices.
Add to those, job vacancies!
Listen in to what to expect.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Isvi...

Maybe not a perfect set of numbers, but pretty damn good.
GDP growth solid - the 'wingardium leviosa' magic for the economy.
Momentum in private demand & now a sharp pull back in govt demand are keys. This is making room for the private sector to invest & hire
www.youtube.com/watch?v=57e8...

Public demand is retreating & dwelling apps hit a 5 yr high.
Adding a twist of lemon & some tonic to the Poor Toms gin, non-res building apps hit an all-time high
Add a 0.1ppt contrib to GDP from net X & the big picture is looking as good as Monet’s water lilies cycle
www.youtube.com/watch?v=hP7d...

House prices down, rental vacancy rate up: Housing policy is working to perfection.
House prices fell 0.9% in August, down 3.6% from peak levels. Prices down for 5 straight months.
Also, the rental vacancy rate rose to 1.9%
www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mgy...

www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMcr...

It's time to throw in the towel: economic growth is hardly slowing at all!
l was wrong to think restrictive interest rates, fiscal tightening, weak wages, rising unemployment & falling wealth from house price declines would see slower GDP growth & a fall in inflation
www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCKR...

Lending for dwellings down, with the composition a text book example of successful policy.
In the June qtr, lending for investment dwellings was down 8%, first home buyer lending was down just 3% & it is still higher than it was a year ago.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBZ9...

RBA Gov Bullock reckons the labour market is tight.
She's wrong.
The RBA is forecasting wages growth to keep falling from an already moderate pace & for the unemployment rate to rise further as the economy slows.
These are symptoms of a labour market with slack
www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3Va...