@pdonovan-econ.bsky.social
Economist. Part time farmer. Amateur boxer. Occasional author. Egotist. Advocate of economics without jargon. Inflation, environmental economics, the economics of prejudice, structural change.
@pdonovan-econ.bsky.socialWill no one think of the bondholders?
Economics is about demand as much as supply. Bond investors are finally exiting a grim period of unfair yields.
@pdonovan-econ.bsky.socialWorrying about the cost of war
Posts from US President Trump could be taken as suggest a concern about the domestic political costs of war, rekindling market optimism.
@pdonovan-econ.bsky.socialThe policy-induced recession risk
Oil prices disproportionately impact other markets via fears central banks will use policy to put the non-oil economy into recession.
@pdonovan-econ.bsky.socialManaging expectations
The minutes of the last US monetary policy meeting are due, and may show more nuance than the unanimity of the decision implied.
@pdonovan-econ.bsky.socialRevisions, resilience, and affordability
The US employment report message not to trust real time data. US consumer should remain resilient, despite the affordability crisis.
@pdonovan-econ.bsky.socialWhat are we missing
Increasingly imprecise economic data means policymakers may waste time pursuing non-existent problems, or (worse) making policy errors.
@pdonovan-econ.bsky.socialThe labor market anomaly
US jobs reports show an OK labor market; but wage growth struggles to match price inflation, and the wage share of the economy is falling.
@pdonovan-econ.bsky.socialSaving the US consumer
US consumers continue the trend of cutting savings rates to pay for tariffs and oil. Revisions suggest they have more room to cut and spend.
@pdonovan-econ.bsky.socialThe power of saving more, or less
UK data is a reminder that if oil prices come down, the consequence may be rebuilding savings rates rather than boosting consumption.
@pdonovan-econ.bsky.socialBonding oil prices to yields
The more central banks talk about oil price inflation, the more markets will expect restrictive policy responses to higher oil.
@pdonovan-econ.bsky.socialCamels through the eyes of fishhooks
Sunday’s announcement of lower tariffs between the US and China is unlikely to move markets. Oil price moves are moving markets.
@pdonovan-econ.bsky.socialThe direct effect still holds. The effective mortgage rate, which obviously includes the consequences of fewer financed purchases and the large stock of mortgages that refinanced immediately post pandemic, was 4.3% in Q2 (Fed data) the highest since late 2011.
@pdonovan-econ.bsky.socialThe beef with affordability
Affordability is not an objectively measured concept, but the US economic environment keeps the affordability crisis in focus.
@pdonovan-econ.bsky.socialHouse problems
Rising US mortgage rates represent an affordability problem that is hidden from the already mediocre US real income growth
@pdonovan-econ.bsky.socialIn bondage?
Bond yield moves seem alarming to younger traders, but more modest to those who remember the pre-financial crisis world.
@pdonovan-econ.bsky.socialThe surge in manufacturing SENTIMENT above a 50 reading this year so far has managed to produce a 0.9% yoy rate of growth in manufacturing output REALITY. US manufacturing output fell in the latest month, even though sentiment rose as a rapid pace.
@pdonovan-econ.bsky.socialSpinning away from war?
Could reaffirming the Obama era deal with Iran be spun in such a way as to end the war in the Gulf?
@pdonovan-econ.bsky.socialIndependent thinking
Gulf states are not optimistic about Iranian peace talks with the US, and seem to be considering a future with less US support.
@pdonovan-econ.bsky.socialAffordability, again
Record US diesel prices shape affordability concerns by raising inflation perceptions.
@pdonovan-econ.bsky.social