We estimate the macroeconomic effects of defence expenditure using 30 years of Spanish defence procurement data. Effects take time to materialize due to implementation lags, become sizable, but are transitory. ➡️ www.bde.es/wbe/en/publi... #bdeResearch

How can climate risk be integrated into the analysis of public debt? The new metrics for sovereign issuers represent a significant step forward: they enable comparisons to be made, trends to be tracked and progress towards climate targets to be assessed. www.bde.es/wbe/en/notic...

How do mergers affect productivity and markups across the economy? Tracking 3,759 Spanish mergers from 1997 to 2022, we find average increases of 2% and 4%. Productivity gains are broad-based across industries; markup increases are concentrated in a few. ➡️ www.bde.es/wbe/en/publi... #bdeResearch

Why did the dollar weaken while long-term Treasury yields rose after the April 2025 U.S. tariff announcements? We show the episode reflected several distinct macro-financial shocks rather than a single tariff shock, identified using heteroskedasticity. ➡️ www.bde.es/wbe/en/publi...
#bdeResearch

Can we turn geopolitical narratives into economic forecasts? Our Bayesian toolkit links evolving scenario probabilities to oil supply disruptions and Brent price paths, and infers which geopolitical outcomes are embedded in market prices. www.bde.es/wbe/en/publi...

New research on 98 regions across Spain, Germany, France and Italy finds six distinct convergence clubs with different long-run income paths. Human capital, physical capital and regions’ ability to use them efficiently are key drivers of growth. www.bde.es/wbe/en/publi...

Two years on, the #DraghiReport is shaping the #EU agenda. But implementation is uneven: progress comes where urgency is shared, not where reforms are necessarily the most transformative, feasible, or least costly. ➡️ www.bde.es/wbe/en/notic... #bdeBlog

Since the Global Financial Crisis, Spain has combined employment and productivity growth, led by digital activities and professional services, reversing the pre-crisis trend of growth with declining productivity. ➡️ www.bde.es/wbe/en/publi...

How do oil supply news shocks propagate through the economy? This paper develops a flexible framework that lets nonlinear transmission emerge from the data. Main finding: adverse shocks have larger effects on activity and employment than favorable shocks www.bde.es/wbe/en/publi... #bdeResearch

How do household wealth surveys contribute to policymaking, research, and official statistics? And how can they continue to do so? Discussing more than 20 years of research based on the #EFF, the Spanish Survey of Household Finances launched by Olympia Bover 👉 www.bde.es/wbe/es/notic... #20YearsEFF

📢 Call for Papers | 7th Conference on Diversity, Equity & Inclusion in Economics, Finance and Central Banking | 22-23 March 2027

Submit your research on diversity, equity and inclusion by 30 October 2026 ➡️ www.bancaditalia.it/media/agenda...

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