Data center investments and power needs are surging at the same time as physical climate risks. Billion-dollar disasters are rising in the US, contributing to power outages, and El Niño’s redistributed weather impacts will only compound these stressors on an already aging grid.

Read our full report on financing constraints in China's AI sector:

Spending on AI has been pressuring Chinese hyperscalers’ free cash flow from both operating cash flows and capital expenditures.

Read more about what the price gap means for the financing environment for China's AI companies:

Since the beginning of this year, most frontier labs and hyperscalers in China have raised model prices. However, even after the price hikes, Chinese frontier models are significantly cheaper than those from US labs.

Read more in our latest note about who loses if China's export market share continues to grow at the same pace it is today:

But losses are concentrated in manufacturing economies, like Germany, Japan, Italy, Poland, and the US. Commodity exporters have very little in common with China’s export profile and face low potential losses from the continued growth of China's exports.

One of the clearest takeaways from our latest analysis on who loses from China's export gains is that economies whose exports are directly competitive or similar to China’s face the biggest potential fallout.

Join Rhodium Group's Dan Rosen on Wednesday for a discussion with Nicholas Lardy on the future of China's domestic consumption. Tickets available here:

These projections should be taken with some salt, but they still illustrate the risks China's growing export share poses to advanced economies that are trying to maintain their industrial bases. Read the note:

Because the economies with the most to lose are those with similar export profiles to China's, loss of export shares would be particularly concentrated in manufacturing economies like the US and Germany, among others.

The net result of our projection would suggest that China gains around $1.13T in annual export value by 2030 relative to the baseline scenario, while the rest of the world loses around $5.1T, with the G7 accounting for $2.25 trillion of those potential losses alone.

But export shares alone present an incomplete picture of the future of global trade, as China's export prices have declined substantially while rising substantially elsewhere, including Germany, the US, and Italy.

An increase in China’s global export share implies a decline in the rest of the world’s share. By 2030, we estimate that the US could lose 1.2 percentage points (pp) of its share of global trade, Indonesia 0.8pp, Canada 0.5pp, Germany 0.4pp, and the Netherlands 0.4pp.

In our latest note, we ask a hypothetical question: What would the world look like if China’s exports kept rising at the same rate they are today? This scenario is purely hypothetical, but it illustrates the risk that continued Chinese export growth poses to advanced economies.

If China's exports kept rising at the same rate they are today, large trading economies with export profiles similar to China like the United States, Germany, Indonesia, and France stand to lose the most. (thread)

Read more in our latest report unpacking the financing environment for China's AI companies:

Guidance from China’s major hyperscalers and telecoms implies 103% y/y growth in AI capex this year to 932 billion yuan ($139B) and over 1.2 trillion yuan ($193B) in 2027, with 39% growth. ByteDance’s upgraded capex plan is the largest marginal contributor this year.