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@jonleonard.bsky.social

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@jonleonard.bsky.socialOct 14, 2026, 2:02 AM

Watch-list (mixed profile): Herbert is the biggest concern with net +2 on volume, but 53.1% comp + 10.6% sack (both bottom-quartile) and 7 INT on 160 att. Baker (11.9% sack, worst in cohort, 34.9% SR) Hurts (53.3% comp, 5.59 YPA) Shough (219 att, most in cohort, 5.93 YPA) Cousins (12 TD, 4 INT)

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@jonleonard.bsky.socialOct 14, 2026, 2:02 AM

Fade the bottom band (net -3): Jones (-4): 5.52 YPA, 3 TD / 4 INT Winston (-4): 5.59 YPA, 52.8% comp, 7.6% sack Rodgers (-3): 6.20 YPA, 55.3% comp Nix (-3) and Ward (-3): both ~5.5 YPA, ~40% SR, low TD output.

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@jonleonard.bsky.socialOct 14, 2026, 2:02 AM

Trust the top band (net ≥ +3): Lamar (+5): 9.39 YPA, 56.3% SR, 66% comp, 1 INT on 103 att Lawrence (+5): 7.62 YPA, 10 TD / 3 INT, 50% SR. Purdy (+3): 8.19 YPA, 13 TD, 2.1% sack (lowest in cohort) Allen (+3): 7.99 YPA, plus 5 rush TD Maye (+3): 7.53 YPA, 8 TD, but 7 INT (bottom-quartile INT rate)

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@jonleonard.bsky.socialOct 14, 2026, 2:02 AM

Looking at ‘21-25, weeks 1-5 predictiveness by stat for the full-season. Early success rate, YPA, and sack rate are the most reliable, while INT is too much noise. For 2026, 29 QBs meet a 100+ attempt threshold. Creating some bands based on the metrics, we can start to see who to trust/watch/fade.

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@jonleonard.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 10:38 PM

Momentum shift for QBs in week 5 Love and Maye took a big leap while Penix, Purdy, Watson, Shough regressed quite a bit.

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@jonleonard.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 7:16 PM

Caught most of the game, that throw behind him in the end zone was unfortunate. Thanks in advance for the breakdown

@fftommyb.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 5:11 PMReposted by @jonleonard.bsky.social

🚨Dynasty analysts I need a fill in the State of Dynasty livestream tonight at 8:30PM Eastern. Please DM me if interested.🚨

@fftommyb.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 2:44 PMReposted by @jonleonard.bsky.social

See you tonight!

@jonleonard.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 2:43 PM

Who does what against each defense, weeks 1-5

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@jonleonard.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 2:06 PM

RB Ahead Of Their 2025 Pace Irving +1.87 (3.40 → 5.27 YPC, 77c) Walker +1.53 (4.65 → 6.17, 87c, 4 TD) Warren +1.32 (4.54 → 5.86, 70c) Hubbard +1.15 Barkley +1.00 Bijan +0.55 on 102 carries Behind Achane -1.94 (5.67 → 3.74) RIP Montgomery -1.85 (4.50 → 2.65) Dobbins -1.47 Hall -1.19 Henderson -1.18

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@jonleonard.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 2:06 PM

WR/TE Behind Their 2025 Pace Diggs -4.5 (9.93 → 5.48) Sutton -4.0 (8.14 → 4.16) Loveland -3.9 Kraft -3.8 Burden -3.3

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@jonleonard.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 2:06 PM

2026 vs 2025 Yards Per Target WR/TE: ahead of own pace Evans +5.7 (5.94 → 11.60 YPT, 35t) 25.4% target share London +5.4 (8.13 → 13.56, 36t) Kelce +3.4 (7.81 → 11.18, 22t) Adams +3.3 (6.92 → 10.26, 38t) down from +6.7 at wks 1-3 Jefferson and Flowers +2.9 Olave +2.5 (54t, highest volume on list)

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@jonleonard.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 11:26 AM

Week 5 top 2 rushers and receivers per team by volume

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@jonleonard.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 1:46 AM

Shouldn’t take long, but maybe the second half will get him more involved

@jonleonard.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 1:39 AM

13 snaps at the half, but no targets

@jonleonard.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 12:14 AM

We need more Koopa on here. He does great things!

@scottspratt.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 12:04 AMReposted by @jonleonard.bsky.social

Here are a few people with fewer than 10k followers that I think should have a lot more:

@sandwichpick.bsky.social
@lukeknox.me
@brykno.bsky.social
@brewpython27.bsky.social

@jonleonard.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 11:58 PM

Disregard that Zac can’t count all the way to 10. It’s very cool to have made this short list.

@jonleonard.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 7:44 PM

Your Leading 2026 Punt/Kick Returners so far... Myles Price and KaVontae Turpin are lapping the field. Price has nearly 100yds more than Turpin, who has nearly 100yds more than Dike at number 3. In only 5 games! The only RB that made the top 10 is Seth McGowan, with just over 80 yards per game.

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@jonleonard.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 11:46 PM

Skyler Bell tomorrow, assuming he does enough to warrant it

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