@futures.csis.org
Futures Lab brings empirical rigor to foresight and policy using computational social science, data science, and AI/ML.
@futures.csis.org1,250 vendors won federal AI awards from FY 2019 to FY 2025, and 66.2 percent won only one contract. But the top three recipients hold 30.4 percent of net obligations: a top-heavy, long-tailed market.
Read the analysis:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/understanding-us-federal-governments-ai-spending
@futures.csis.orgSince Feb. 2022, our team identified 110 cases of Russian nuclear icebreakers escorting sanctioned shadow fleet tankers for more than an estimated six hours. These escorts help sustain Arctic energy exports.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/melting-arctic-lifeline-russias-shadow-fleet
@futures.csis.orgOver half of the 75 federal AI solicitations CSIS reviewed contain no clear governance language. Red teaming, audit access, and incident reporting each appear in fewer than 10 percent.
Read the analysis:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/understanding-us-federal-governments-ai-spending
@futures.csis.orgHow do you track a tanker broadcasting a false location? The Kola’s spoofed signal places it off Nigeria while it operates in the Arctic. Our analysis shows why vessel signals need to be paired with satellite imagery.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/melting-arctic-lifeline-russias-shadow-fleet
@futures.csis.orgFederal AI demand is rising, but since ChatGPT's launch, data center growth has outpaced federal AI contracting, a sign that commercial demand increasingly drives AI infrastructure.
Read the analysis:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/understanding-us-federal-governments-ai-spending
@futures.csis.orgRussia’s Arctic energy trade depends on icebreakers and a handful of transfer hubs. Our research traces how this network sustains exports—and where monitoring and sanctions could constrain it.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/melting-arctic-lifeline-russias-shadow-fleet
@futures.csis.orgFederal AI contracts more than tripled from FY 2019 to FY 2025. DOD holds 83 percent of $4.1 billion in obligations, and over half of solicitations reviewed lack clear governance language.
Read the Critical Questions:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/understanding-us-federal-governments-ai-spending
@futures.csis.orgRussia is on track for 840 ballistic-missile launches at Ukraine this year, up 47% from 2025. The intercept rate fell from 24% to 10.2%—a warning that replacement capacity matters.
@futures.csis.orgAir-defense readiness is more than today’s stockpile. In a prolonged conflict, how should allies measure the ability to regenerate interceptors—and what should governments fund now?
