@donnermaps.bsky.social
Contributor @the-downballot.com. Focusing on data, maps, and demographics. Find our data (and the CD hexmap template!) at https://the-db.co/data
@johngramlich.bsky.socialReposted by @donnermaps.bsky.social"67% of Trump’s 2024 voters now approve of his performance, down from 75% in July, 83% at the beginning of this year and 95% early in his second term." www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
@carlquintanilla.bsky.socialReposted by @donnermaps.bsky.socialBLAS: “.. Once again, I had to update the y-axis as the cost of oil freight (Persian Gulf to the Far East) climbs further. Now at >$1.4 million per day.”
@bloomberg.com @javierblas.bsky.social ⛽️
@ence.bsky.socialReposted by @donnermaps.bsky.socialunreal piece by @federicacocco.bsky.social @teoarmus.bsky.social. look at those job numbers falling off a cliff!
@carlquintanilla.bsky.socialReposted by @donnermaps.bsky.socialThe NY Fed examines how tariffs affected inflation and finds that, without them, goods prices would have declined as of last February.
@andrewdeck.bsky.socialReposted by @donnermaps.bsky.socialChatGPT is adding the signatures of real New Yorker cartoonists to its AI-generated images. So far, I've found the signatures of more than 15 contributors.
"It’s slop, and unlike the other slop that I’ve encountered, this is slop that’s pretending to be me." www.niemanlab.org/2026/10/chat...
@donnermaps.bsky.socialYou mean within 7 of 2018? That's the sort of normal variation you would expect from polls *if* the actual value were the same as 2018. Of course, we don't yet know the actual value this year.
@donnermaps.bsky.socialA comparison of the NYT/Siena generic ballot numbers for each polled state with recent House popular vote margins within that state. The most recent poll for all states is within 7 points of the 2018 margin.
@donnermaps.bsky.socialDemocrats don't want to stick around either, but didn't reach the record of 1992. 9 of these seats are open because of redistricting. 7 because of a primary loss.
@donnermaps.bsky.socialThere's a record 44 Republican-held open House seats this cycle.
Half are because the incumbent is running for a different office or seat.
The previous high point was 41 in 2018.
@stephenwolf.bsky.socialReposted by @donnermaps.bsky.socialNEW: The 2026 elections in most states will decide which party runs elections heading into 2028 (see map).
We detail how Democrats could hold or gain this power in 14 potentially competitive states—and form a bulwark against MAGA subverting the 2028 elections
www.the-downballot.com/p/voters-can...
@rsimmon.bsky.socialReposted by @donnermaps.bsky.socialWith both Lake Powell and Lake Mead at record-lows, here’s a look at how their water levels have varied since Powell was filled in 1980. Neither has recovered from a severe drought in the early 2020s, while Colorado River flows continue to drop.
@justinwolfers.bsky.socialReposted by @donnermaps.bsky.socialAn all around weak -- but not tragic -- payrolls report for September. +29k jobs created, about 60k below expectations. Revisions made both July and August look weaker, too. Over the past 3 months, we've an average of a mere +17k per month.
@kjhealy.coReposted by @donnermaps.bsky.socialI’ve written this up here. In addition to there not being a Covid-scale drop in tourism recently, you might also be wondering why visits from Mexico seem to double around 2004-05. The answer is not a sudden shift in Mexican preferences but rather our old friend, There Was A Change In The Measure.
@donnermaps.bsky.socialThe election is coming... time to get maps ready! We have both normal maps and our hexmap cartogram available for you as image files, shapefiles, and svg files.
The cartogram can also be found on Datawrapper under USA>>Congressional Districts Elections 2026 (hexmap)
@titonka.bsky.socialReposted by @donnermaps.bsky.socialThe masculinity politics beat continues to be very necessary. goodauthority.substack.com/p/republican...
@aaronjbecker.bsky.socialReposted by @donnermaps.bsky.socialLake Erie turned toward autumn in a single week. Every hour of its surface currents, 16 to 23 September 2026, colored by water temperature: the surface lost about 6°F in seven days.
Data: NOAA Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (model)
@donnermaps.bsky.social1938 is the end of a dramatic realignment period. The years 1966, 1982, and 2006 were previously discussed in this thread:
@donnermaps.bsky.socialThese mismatches then show up as outlying data points on the regression of *change* in House popular vote versus *change* in national primary margin. But all the other years fall nicely along one tight line.
@donnermaps.bsky.socialBut because four of the epochs have very similar slopes, we can transform the chart by looking at the *change* in both variables. And when we do that, the epoch divisions transform into mismatches between the two time series.
