Grilled Cheese

ExploreLog inSign up

Rob Arthur

@robarthur.bsky.social

338 Following2.1k Followers

Data journalist, data scientist, freelancer published many places: WSJ, NYT, the Atlantic, the Guardian, etc. Before that: staff at FiveThirtyEight Before that: an evolutionary geneticist.

PostsRepliesMedia
@jakemgrumbach.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 4:54 PMReposted by @robarthur.bsky.social

New working paper: the Norwegian wealth tax was a huge success. The "exodus" of wealthy people never happened (less than 100 individuals left). Tax revenue increased by 71.5%. No changes in business activity or investment.

www.nber.org/papers/w35854

Taxing Entrepreneurial Wealth: Evidence from
Norway, 2021-2025
Marius A. K. Ring
WORKING PAPER 35854|
DOl 10.3386/w35854
ISSUE DATE October 2026
Whether imposing higher taxes on business owners adversely affects business activity by constraining investment and inducing capitalist flight is a central question in the ongoing debate on how to tax the ultra wealthy. To shed new light, I exploit a series of related Norwegian reforms during 2021-2024 that increased dividend tax rates, removed migration-related capital gains tax loopholes, and nearly doubled the effective marginal tax rate on business wealth. These reforms spurred international debate and, allegedly, an "exodus" of Norwegian billionaires (Financial Times,
2023). While I document clear effects on migration, these responses are concentrated among the top 0.1% of the wealth distribution and mostly confined to 2022 and 2023. My results indicate that at most 100 individuals left due to the reforms. I find no evidence of significant outmigration or reduced inflows of startup founders or inventors. I estimate that absent any outmigration, wealth tax revenues would have increased by 75% from 2021 to 2024. Reform-driven outmigration lowers the revenue gain to 71.5%. My findings further show that outmigrating owners' firms remain economically active and do not reduce investment. In a broader set of analyses, I examine whether business outcomes are affected, regardless of whether owners outmigrate, since firms may reduce investment both due to liquidity constraints or distortions to owners' savings decisions. I compare firms owned by Norwegian individuals subject to the wealth tax with firms owned by foreigners and other tax-exempt entities. By merging historical ownership data from Orbis with the Norwegian shareholder register, I perform these analyses on both Norwegian and foreign-domiciled firms.
Across settings, I find no evidence that Norwegian-owned firms pay out more dividends or invest less after the reforms,…
148
@robarthur.bsky.socialOct 1, 2026, 4:51 PM

I think that's also a fair perspective! From that view, I think the title becomes "video games are becoming *high-quality art*" and partly because the reviewers are pushing them in that direction. But you can also see the quality coming through from their adaptations into other artistic media.

@robarthur.bsky.socialOct 1, 2026, 4:18 PM

In fact, video game reviewers seem to talk more about plot, narrative, and artistic impact than movie reviewers, according to this Metacritic data. I'd argue both forms contain works of art, and both contain "functional" works meant to distract and waste time (schlocky action movies, etc.).

@robarthur.bsky.socialOct 1, 2026, 4:16 PM

Both game critics and users alike now seem to weigh the story of a game above almost all other criteria--including visuals, gameplay, etc.

Change in reviewer's score based on positive-negative mentions in each aspect of the game. Narrative elements have increased a lot in score.
@robarthur.bsky.socialOct 1, 2026, 4:14 PM

People have been arguing about "video games as art" for decades. In that time, gamers and critics themselves have started to care a lot more about games' stories and artistic impact, suggesting that the medium is evolving.
no-little-plans.ghost.io/video-games-...

@robarthur.bsky.socialSep 23, 2026, 7:45 PM

Quick article at BP about how the landscape of Japanese talent flowing into MLB has changed. It was hard to translate and project from NPB based on outcome metrics; it's much easier with things like fastball velocity and bat speed.
www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

Chart showing a spike in Japanese-born players' playing time in MLB over the last couple of years.
@baseballprospectus.comSep 23, 2026, 6:55 PMReposted by @robarthur.bsky.social

This Wave Of Japanese Talent Is The Beginning Of A Pipeline
by Robert Arthur (@robarthur.bsky.social)
www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

@robarthur.bsky.socialSep 3, 2026, 2:01 PM

Another fascinating thing to me was that the culinary mix doesn't really vary much from large urban counties to smaller rural ones. American and Mexican food are the two dominant cuisines, with side helpings of Chinese, Italian, etc. Urban counties just have more distinct low-frequency flavors.

@robarthur.bsky.socialSep 3, 2026, 1:58 PM

An interesting side story from this was that the counties where immigrants move also develop restaurants from their home countries about 2 years later, like clockwork. But, the elasticity--how many more restaurants open in that county--varies tremendously across different origins.

@robarthur.bsky.socialSep 3, 2026, 1:57 PM

10 years ago, a Trump supporter named Marco Gutierrez declared that without policy changes, there would be "a taco truck on every corner." A decade on, tacos are the fastest-rising culinary format in the country, much to most everyone's delight. no-little-plans.ghost.io/a-taco-truck...

@robarthur.bsky.socialSep 2, 2026, 8:01 PM

Strangely, no one seems to be complaining about the additional taquerias 🧐

@robarthur.bsky.socialSep 2, 2026, 7:59 PM

Almost exactly 10 years since the famous warning that there would soon be "a taco truck on every corner," they are indeed the biggest increase in restaurant format in the US, per Foursquare's data.
no-little-plans.ghost.io/a-taco-truck...

@saberseminar.bsky.socialAug 31, 2026, 5:16 PMReposted by @robarthur.bsky.social

Thanks to all of our attendees and presenters for another successful Saberseminar! You guys are the main attraction and the community that makes our event welcoming, fun, and interesting, and we are so grateful to all of you. ❤️

Terms of UsePrivacy PolicyCommunity StandardsHelpGet the app

Grilled Cheese is a product of Village Compute

Version devBuilt at: 2026-10-12 04:31:30 EDT