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Alex Luck

@alxluck.bsky.social

584 Following10.3k Followers

Chinese Military. Bundeswehr/NATO. MA Pol Sci/History. Cats, dogs, motorcycles. Überbringer schlechter Nachrichten. Analysis@ NavalNews.com. Contributor@ hartpunkt.de. Previous articles at FPRI.org.

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@alxluck.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 3:34 AM

Wenn deutsche SiPo in vergangenen Jahren eines gelernt haben sollte, dann, dass das "Sparen" an grundsaetzlichen Eckdaten ein sensationelles Eigentor darstellt, das mittelfristig erneut in Faehigkeitsluecken und langfristig in entsprechenden neuen u Extra-Kosten resultiert. /end

@alxluck.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 3:34 AM

Der zweite Aspekt ist Kostenkontrolle. Niemand ist damit gedient, wenn urspruenglich zitierte Kosten, inkl angeblicher Einsparungen, langfristig illusionaer bleiben. Die Auftragsstruktur muss sicherstellen, dass KPIs erreichbar & Ansprueche bei Fehlleistungen durchsetzbar sind.

@alxluck.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 3:34 AM

Echte Einsparungen ergeben sich schlicht aus einem "schlankeren" Anforderungsprofil. Das wuerde zb bedeuten, man reduziert den Anteil an nationalen Sonderwuenschen, sei es das CMS oder verschiedene "Goldrandloesung"-Komponenten fuer EW, ASW u Nahbereichsverteidigung.

@alxluck.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 3:34 AM

Ich halte es grundsaetzlich fuer das Gegenteil von schlau, bei F127 Kerndaten unter dem Aspekt Einsparungen zu veraendern. Die Fregatten werden nicht deutlich billiger, weil man 2,000 Tonnen am Rumpf oder den Platz fuer (zb) 32 Zellen einspart.
www.hartpunkt.de/verdraengt-d...

@alxluck.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 11:45 PM

The kanji is 翔鯨, and the equivalent is Shōgei. I would pronounce it Shogei rather than Shougei, but YMMV and I am not proficient in Japanese.

@alxluck.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 2:43 AM

End of the day this is primarily another example of how governments and services ideally get much better explaining operational rationales to the public. But from an institutional POV this remains a low priority, not just in NZ. Institutions rather just get on with it & ignore public talking points.

@alxluck.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 2:19 AM

Indias largest AOR to date remains JNS Jyoti, at ca 36,000 tons, which incidentally is a sistership to the Chinese Type 908 AOR Qinghaihu (885). Both were originally Soviet Komandarm Fedko-class replenishment oilers transferred during the 1990s.

@alxluck.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 2:19 AM

Much needed fleet replenishment capability for the Indian Navy making a step forward. Once operational, these five ca 44,000 ton AORs will provide an order of magnitute more capacity than the existing fleet of four vessels across three very different types. www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...

@alxluck.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 11:52 PM

What did change in spaces like the SCS & generally the "first island chain" is not the emergence of particular new technologies. But the rise of a navy that uses new & "older" technologies to project power. The nature of sea control in the Pacific changes because of PLAN. /end

@alxluck.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 11:52 PM

In the littoral space on the other hand sea control has arguably never been persistent, because innovations such as mines, submarines, AShM etc always put challengers at an advantage, resulting in intermediate sea control where such assets are a threat for decades.

@alxluck.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 11:52 PM

This dynamic IMO is not driven by any technological change, drones or otherwise, but by power balances. Consider that the US maintained this type of sea control only from the second half of the Pacific War, and then, absent any serious naval challenge, into the present time.

@alxluck.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 11:52 PM

My principal concern is that "sea control" to a large extent in Western thinking is shaped by long-standing stable power ratios ensuring what the text calls "classic sea control - exerted by a largely unchallenged navy for long durations and over wide areas".

@alxluck.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 11:52 PM

Interesting piece by the esteemed Sean Andrews on the changing character of sea control. This observation echoes to some extent views how modern offensive ground warfare more heavily emphasises raiding. However, I do question the historical evidence base. www.aspistrategist.org.au/not-like-the...

@alxluck.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 2:55 AM

MHI Kobe has launched the seventh Taigei-class SSK for JMSDF, maintaining the delivery rate of one boat per year for the service, together with KHI.

news.yahoo.co.jp/expert/artic...

@alxluck.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 12:48 AM

Secondly, does that have to be 06FFM? Range, capability & interoperability appeal. Politics do, too. Price & complexity less so. There are other options for real frigates, but end of the day none of them will be a lot cheaper IMO, especially over the long term, so the problem remains the same. /end

@alxluck.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 12:48 AM

There are two questions. First, whether NZ needs a frigate? I think they do, based on general requirements and the historical track record shaping procurement decisions. Efforts to get frigates on the cheap (such as FFBNW and OPV sold as FFs) never pan out. You do get what you pay for.

@saturnax1.bsky.socialOct 7, 2026, 7:25 AMReposted by @alxluck.bsky.social

#SubWednesday #Submarines
148 Commando Forward Observation Battery training with a German Navy Type 212A-class Batch II diesel-electric/AIP attack submarine of the coast of Scotland.
Source: www.instagram.com/p/DeJ2_criPKp/

@alxluck.bsky.socialSep 25, 2026, 2:38 AM

"Colby has dubbed the effort NATO 3.0."

Not sure what happened to NATO 2.0, but presumably this new version includes just telling your allies one thing today and the polar opposite tomorrow. 🙃
www.politico.com/news/2026/09...

@alxluck.bsky.socialSep 24, 2026, 2:10 PM

Thanks!

@alxluck.bsky.socialSep 24, 2026, 6:58 AM

Am Ende muss man natuerlich beides machen, ie "schnell = FMS", "nachhaltig = national/Euro". Das kann uebrigens auch Lizensproduktion von US-Systemen sein, haben wir bei CH-53 damals nicht anders gemacht. Bzgl F-35 Preis bin ich unsicher, ob da das Triebwerk inbegriffen war.

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