CW3E Scripps (@cw3escripps.bsky.social)

@cw3escripps.bsky.social Oct 9, 2026, 9:50 PM

Since yesterday morning, the forecast track for Tropical Storm Rachel has shifted slightly north and west, potentially bringing heavier rainfall and greater impacts to southern California.

See our latest outlook for more information: cw3e.ucsd.edu/cw3e-precipi....

Left: National Hurricane Center graphic showing the location of Tropical Storm Rachel at 8 am Pacific Time Friday 9 October, as well as its forecast track and intensity classification over the next 5 days. Right: Weather Prediction Center graphic showing the Days 1-3 excessive rainfall outlook (i.e., risk of rainfall of flash flood guidance) over the southwestern US through 5 am Pacific Time Monday 12 October.

@cw3escripps.bsky.social Oct 8, 2026, 9:56 PM

Tropical Storm Rachel is forecast to turn northeastward and interact with a deepening shortwave trough over the US West Coast this weekend, setting the stage for a multi-day rainfall event over the southwestern US.

For more info, see our latest precipitation outlook: cw3e.ucsd.edu/cw3e-ar-upda...

Left image shows The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) Integrated Vapor Transport percentile of climatology plot. Right image shows the Weather Prediction Center's 7-day total precipitation forecast valid 5 am Pacific Time on 15 October.

@cw3escripps.bsky.social Sep 28, 2026, 9:18 PM

Tropical moisture from Hurricane Polo and the remnants of Odalys will interact with a shortwave trough to produce moderate-to-heavy rainfall over the Four Corners region today through Wednesdsay.

Check out our latest Quick Look for more details: cw3e.ucsd.edu/wp-content/u....

Left: Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Day 1 quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF; shading) and excessive rainfall outlook (ERO; contours) valid for the 24-hour period ending 5 am PT Tue 29 Sep. Right: WPC Day 2 QPF and ERO valid for the 24-hour period ending 5 am PT Wed 30 Sep.

@cw3escripps.bsky.social Sep 17, 2026, 7:46 PM

CW3E Publication Notice: "Diagnosing Forecast Error Propagation and Large-Scale Dynamics of Weather Extremes With an AI Weather Model" in @agu.org's Geophysical Research Letters.

For a summary of this paper, visit: cw3e.ucsd.edu/cw3e-publica....

Schematic diagram of the true-state constraint (TSC) method. After each forecast step, predicted conditions inside the solid box are replaced with concurrent ERA5 reanalysis data before the next step. The band between the solid and dashed boxes blends the forecast and reanalysis, while the model evolves freely elsewhere. Figure S1 from Nie et al. (2026, Supporting Information).

@cw3escripps.bsky.social Sep 8, 2026, 7:22 PM

CW3E Publication Notice: "Orographic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Sensitivity to the Choice of Microphysics Parameterization during a U.S. West Coast Atmospheric River Event" in @ametsoc.org's Weather and Forecasting.

For a summary of this paper, visit: cw3e.ucsd.edu/cw3e-publica....

Multi-panel figure showing differences in 72-hour forecast precipitation accumulation (in millimeters; shaded as in legend) between re-forecasts using various bulk microphysics parameterization schemes and the re-forecast ensemble mean for a high-impact atmospheric river during 7-10 January 2017. Contours enclose departures from the Stage IV quantitative precipitation estimate exceeding the 75th percentiles of the overprediction (magenta) and underprediction (black) error distributions pooled across the ensemble. Because the thresholds are ensemble-relative rather than absolute, the contoured area is directly comparable between schemes. From Figure 5 in Smith et al. (2026).

@scrippsocean.bsky.social Sep 8, 2026, 6:11 PMReposted by @cw3escripps.bsky.social

🎈 Let's launch a weather balloon off Scripps Pier with Jeri! We caught up with Jeri Wilcox, a research data analyst with the @cw3escripps.bsky.social at Scripps, to learn more about why weather balloon launches are crucial for operational global weather models. https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/

@cw3escripps.bsky.social Sep 2, 2026, 8:43 PM

An early-season storm will impact the Pacific Northwest and northern California this week. Moisture associated with Tropical Storm Marie could bring rainfall to California this weekend into early next week.

Check out our latest Quick Look for more details: cw3e.ucsd.edu/wp-content/u....

@cw3escripps.bsky.social Aug 27, 2026, 4:43 PM

CW3E Publication Notice: "Impact of Radar Data Assimilation on Regional Precipitation Forecasts of Two Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers" was recently published in the @ametsoc.org's Monthly Weather Review.

Read more about this research here: cw3e.ucsd.edu/cw3e-publica...