@matthewlebo.bsky.social
American politics professor in Canada at the University of Western Ontario.
@westernu.caReposted by @matthewlebo.bsky.social"Polls tell us a lot, but they cannot capture the forces that move conflicted individual voters in the final days of a campaign."
Ahead of the U.S. midterms, #WesternU prof. Matthew Lebo shares his insights in an opinion piece for @theglobeandmail.com.
@matthewlebo.bsky.socialTrump hit 30% approval in Pew's latest survey. If he's in the 20s with Democratic majorities in the House and Senate in 2027, that will be interesting.
@matthewlebo.bsky.socialAH, 1932: "For fourteen long years these parties have raped German freedom, beaten German men with clubs. Before two or three months pass this terror will be removed if you vote for National Socialists." encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/f...
DJT, 2026:
@matthewlebo.bsky.socialYup.
@matthewlebo.bsky.socialYou really need a faster car.
@matthewlebo.bsky.socialYes, we should invest much more in universities, especially PhD programs, but also including hiring world-class researchers to train the PhD students. If it is hard to find enough world-class researchers who are Canadian, well that's why we need world-wide searches.
@matthewlebo.bsky.socialThis is great but $100M funds only 12-13 PhDs. Yes, let's recruit international PhD students and, yes, regular Ontario stipends are way too low. But these need to be addressed with regular budgeting. Fundraising and interest on endowments isn't nearly enough.
www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/artic...
@matthewlebo.bsky.socialAnd because I can make three kinds of kugel.
@matthewlebo.bsky.socialMy take in the Globe and Mail on what midterm polls in the US can and cannot tell us: www.theglobeandmail.com/world/articl...
@matthewlebo.bsky.socialCould Alito not quite withdraw but agree to retire if the votes are there for a replacement? The Senate goes through the whole process with a potential nominee and once they have enough support, Alito resigns, Trump nominates, and the Senate confirms in an afternoon.
@matthewlebo.bsky.socialNo, that can't be right. The NYT told me "the job market has been strong."
@matthewlebo.bsky.socialI saw a poll this week that had him dip into the 20s at 29. Come on in, Mr. Trump, the water is fine!
@matthewlebo.bsky.socialWhen the leopards are eating faces that look a lot like yours and there are very few faces left to eat.
@matthewlebo.bsky.socialI still can't tell them apart.
@matthewlebo.bsky.socialThe new Chunnel is going to be awesome.
@matthewlebo.bsky.socialTrump didn’t promise or pledge $5,000. What’s the right word for saying something you have no intention or history of following through on? Maybe “Trump Dangles $5,000”?
@matthewlebo.bsky.socialDave Rohde's work was also a foundation for a 2011 JOP article I wrote with Andrew O'Geen. Our point: "We would adjust
CPG to say that leaders will use the powwer delegated to them in order to help (or hurt) a president from their (the opposition) party."
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdf/10.1...
@matthewlebo.bsky.socialMost presidents lose popularity --> fewer people identify with the president's party as they stay in office --> support for policies of the president's party go down. Is that what we've been calling thermostatic public opinion?
@matthewlebo.bsky.socialDonald Trump also began telling the completely untrue story that he saw hundreds of Muslim Americans in New Jersey celebrating as the towers fell. He told that story so many times and it was such an obvious sign that he's not just a racist and a liar but a hate-monger. The media failed there too.
@matthewlebo.bsky.socialAll you blue-skyers have crashed the Le Creuset .ca website!
