If you're further south, it's a gamble at this point with what the Bz will do. It's seeming more likely that this Bz north period is a real trend (flux rope probably) without and end for a couple more hours...

I'm not super confident anything will change in the near-term, but if you are near the U.S.-Canada border, you are still in for a show tonight (like what you see here).

Beautiful night from Maine looking north on this live cam, I mean check out the big dipper here--stunning! Unfortunately, the auroral arc has only retreated here over the past couple hours as Bz has been slammed north.

I wouldn't expect much for anything south of U.S.-Canada border states at the moment unless a substorm kicks things into gear and we get a slight glow for places like Chicago, Ohio, Upstate NY, etc.

Welp... this is all we have right now for upper-mid latitudes. You are looking at a diffuse arc of aurora low on the sky at Isle Royale National Park. The Bz is SOLID north, and the trend looks like it could maintain for the next few hours unless something changes.

NASA M2M is quite bearish on the M6.4 CME, and it does not even register as an impact at Earth. Perhaps it will come close by around 12 UT on Oct 13. The shock may still graze us since this is a "bulk" run. The bulk of the CME *did* appear mostly directed northwest.

Pretty funny to see the auroral oval has moved almost totally south of high-latitude locations like Kiruna, Sweden. This is to be expected under strong geomagnetic storming. It seems like the CME is weakening, though so widespread auroral displays are definitely TBD for North America.

Very intense response in the AE index from the impact of the CME and subsequent substorming. The storm has calmed a bit since... Bt is 20 nT (still very elevated, though), but Bz is around 0. Wind spee remains high, over 750 km/s, so mid-latitude auroral displays are still possible.

Still, with a disturbed magnetosphere, I expect at the very least diffuse auroral displays visible from the northern tier of the U.S. tonight right after sunset. Darkness is about 6 hours away for the east coast.

It's too early to say whether this is a REAL trend or just expected fluctuations during the beginning stages of a strong solar storm impact. Time will tell, and that is always the hard part of this hobby :)

so do not treat this as a slam dunk. In fact, the solar storm may already be weakening as the total magnetic field strength has decreased by almost 50% since the earlier peak of the storm. Solar wind speed has also calmed a bit...

A strong G3 geomagnetic storm is occurring due to the impact of a potent CME with wind speeds reaching > 900 km/s. HOWEVER, these conditions may not last for North American night,

Mid-latitude auroras have already been observed across a lot of northern Europe, and views should just expand south as the storm is currently at full tilt!

G3 / Kp 7 conditions have been observed, and now have an ALERT for a STRONG geomagnetic storm! Aurora watchers in Europe better be brewing extra coffee or tea, because it's going to be a great night for many of you!

G3 or higher conditions are to be expected now due to intense solar wind conditions (wind speed > 900 km/s!!!! with Bt > 20 nT is actually quite impressive). LOW-LATITUDE auroral displays through southern Europe are possible tonight.