Senior Research Fellow at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies.
Weekly analysis of missile tech, nuclear strategy, and European deterrence π
https://missilematters.substack.com/subscribe

@frhoffmann.bsky.social
Senior Research Fellow at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies.
Weekly analysis of missile tech, nuclear strategy, and European deterrence π
https://missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
My latest Missile Matters post maps the Western turbojet supplier base, covering 26 confirmed designs from nine manufacturers. I compile the available production figures and assess how Western output compares with Russiaβs.
π A year ago, I wrote about the lack of scalable mini jet engine production in Europe and the wider West.
Demand has since accelerated faster than anticipated, driven by low-cost cruise missile procurement and the need for jet-powered interceptors.
β’οΈ New episode of Mildly Alarmed is out!
This week, @alanderminna.bsky.social and @frhoffmann.bsky.social sit down with @hfayet.bsky.social to discuss the impact of AI on nuclear weapons and how social media impact nuclear signalling.
Needless to say: interesting stuff!
My latest free Missile Matters post estimates how many missiles and how much associated equipment Germany could acquire with this funding, how long deliveries might take, and whether the purchase still makes sense.
Three years after Berlin first identified a ground-launched deep-strike capability gap, the sale now appears likely to proceed, with President Trump's backing secured at the NATO Summit in Ankara and a letter of intent signed.
π Germany has reportedly set aside almost β¬3.4 billion for Tomahawk cruise missiles and Typhon batteries in its 2027 budget planning, following an acquisition process that stalled for the better part of a year.
π With Russian ballistic missile production rising and far outpacing Europe's ability to supply interceptors, Ukraine has little choice but to try to interdict Russian ballistic missiles before they are launched.
But can it do so?
Whenever I'm briefed by people working in the European oil sector, their assessments of just how bad the last 12 months have been for Russia's oil sector consistently exceed those reported in public news. And it's just going to get worse from here.
My latest Missile Matters post traces the problem from nuclear counterforce strategy to Ukraine's current campaign, argues that the task is difficult but not impossible, and identifies the kill-chain elements that will determine its success.
Strikes on Russia's ballistic missile industry have scored painful hits, yet output keeps growing. The alternative is to hunt Russia's mobile missile launchers in the field, one of the hardest tasks in modern warfare, above all with stand-off weapons.
π With Russian ballistic missile production rising and far outpacing Europe's ability to supply interceptors, Ukraine has little choice but to try to interdict Russian ballistic missiles before they are launched.
But can it do so?
Can #Ukraine Hunt Russian Mobile Missile Launchers?, by @frhoffmann.bsky.social.
substack.com/app-link/pos... #Russia #Putinswar
My latest Missile Matters post profiles all six missile systems in this emerging arsenal, covering performance characteristics and production rates. I also identify the single supply-chain vulnerability the arsenal currently rests on. 3/3
In some raids, they already account for half or more of incoming projectiles. These missiles exploit a gap in Ukraine's layered air defense that neither interceptor drones nor high-end surface-to-air missiles can close cost-effectively. 2/3
Since early 2026, Russia has fielded a family of low-cost, turbojet-powered cruise missiles and dramatically scaled up production.
Russia is now launching hundreds of low-cost cruise missiles each month, soon likely thousands.
1/3
Cheap, Fast, and Mass-Produced: Russia's New Low-Cost Cruise Missile Arsenal. @frhoffmann.bsky.social profiles the systems that are filling the gap between drones and high-end missiles.
substack.com/app-link/pos... #Russia #Putinswar #Ukraine
US is in practically the same situation in Iran as Russia is in Ukraine. Both are losing their wars.
Latest from 'Mildly Alarmed'π
@frhoffmann.bsky.social @kaeggen.bsky.social @alanderminna.bsky.social @lapatina.bsky.social
2) How will Russia react? As we deploy more of these weapon systems, and for specific purposes, this will trigger Russian counterreactions. That is not an argument against arming in the deep-strike domain, but a factor to keep in mind as we move forward. The adversary gets a vote too. 4/4
1) What exactly do we want to deploy these systems for? Right now, it seems to me that we procure, in part, for procurement's sake. But what exactly are the deterrence and warfighting objectives we want to achieve? We need to answer that question for ourselves and signal it to our adversary. 3/4
As Europe discusses the deployment of counterstrike capabilities to compensate for the inability of today's ballistic missile defense to deal with the scope of the threat, there are two things to keep in mind: 2/4