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François Heisbourg

@fheisbourg.bsky.social

191 Following13.2k Followers

Senior adviser (Europe), IISS, Special adviser, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique

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@fheisbourg.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 9:45 AM

An important contribution to the debate on the shape of the post transatlantic order in Europe. The possibility and risk of the emergence of a new German question is viewed as being at the heart of the matter.

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@fheisbourg.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 8:27 AM

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1693 1. While POTUS voids US sanctions, the EU launches new sanctions package 2. 5 Iskander M and 9 Bandeerol vs Ukraine 88/108 strike drones down/out (58/74 jet propelled strike drones down)

@kyivindependent.comOct 12, 2026, 9:45 PMReposted by @fheisbourg.bsky.social

⚡Ukrainska Pravda demands investigation into Austrian police conduct after journalists' detention.

@politico.euOct 13, 2026, 7:26 AMReposted by @fheisbourg.bsky.social

Last month, French President Emmanuel Macron called on top European players to forge a new “alliance” to strengthen collective satellite capacity. The real target of the let’s-team-up message? Elon Musk’s Starlink.

@noelreports.comOct 13, 2026, 7:34 AMReposted by @fheisbourg.bsky.social

Trump insisted Russia and Ukraine agreed to his energy ceasefire, saying: “They agreed. You know why? Because I said, ‘You agree.’” Asked about reported Russian violations, he said violations had occurred “on both sides” and that he believes Putin and Zelensky both support it. #Ukraine

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@hanstino.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 7:56 AMReposted by @fheisbourg.bsky.social

Today's two Russian attacks on vessels just outside Bulgarian territorial waters and following last week's attack near Romanian TTW mark a dangerous Russian escalation track that may lead to direct involvement of the two countries & NATO. This may well be the Russian game plan to test this.

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@fheisbourg.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 8:09 AM

Wondering we will seize sanctions-breaking ships bringing 🇷🇺 diesel to 🇺🇸

@noelreports.comOct 13, 2026, 8:01 AMReposted by @fheisbourg.bsky.social

France boarded the tanker DF Peak more than 450 nautical miles south of Réunion, Macron says. The vessel is suspected of sailing under a false flag and involvement in illicit fuel transport. Macron said France is determined to combat the “ghost fleet.” #France

@fheisbourg.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 11:47 AM

Indeed

@theguardian.comOct 12, 2026, 11:42 AMReposted by @fheisbourg.bsky.social

Zelenskyy vows to retaliate if Russian strikes on Ukraine’s power grid continue

theguardian.comZelenskyy vows to retaliate if Russian strikes on Ukraine’s power grid continueUkrainian leader says he was surprised by Trump’s ‘energy ceasefire’ announcement, which was posted as Russian drones hit Kyiv * Europe live – latest updates Volodymyr Zelenskyy has vowed to respond to Russia’s continuing attacks on the Ukrainian power grid as European leaders rally around Kyiv amid a feud with Donald Trump over Ukraine’s strikes on oil refineries. Speaking to a gathering of European security officials in Warsaw on Monday, the Ukrainian president said Ukraine would retaliate if strikes on its power grid continued: “If Russia does not agree to an energy ceasefire this winter, we will respond.” Continue reading...
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@eliothiggins.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 11:35 AMReposted by @fheisbourg.bsky.social

The correct response to this would be to make all the evidence used to draw the conclusion public, then challenge Farage to respond, otherwise people will just pick their opinions on the matter based purely on who they trust.

@fheisbourg.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 7:28 AM

SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1691 1. 🇷🇺 strikes Kharkiv power plant shortly after Trump's purported energy cease fire 2. Trump threatens to suspends US arms deliveries to 🇺🇦. Reminder: Europe plus 🇨🇦+🇭🇲 pays for 100% of arms transfers to 🇺🇦 3. 89/121 strike drones down/out, of which 55/76 jet propelled

@kyivindependent.comOct 11, 2026, 5:57 PMReposted by @fheisbourg.bsky.social

⚡️Russia struck Kharkiv's power plant shortly after Trump announced 'energy ceasefire.’ Ukraine's Presidential Office confirmed that the attack occurred after U.S. President Donald Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

@kyivindependent.comOct 11, 2026, 8:46 PMReposted by @fheisbourg.bsky.social

⚡️US threatens to halt weapons procurement for Ukraine over strikes on Russian energy sites, FT reports. The reported pressure preceded President Donald Trump’s announcement on Oct. 11 that Moscow and Kyiv had agreed to stop attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure.

@wartranslated.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 8:27 PMReposted by @fheisbourg.bsky.social

Ukraine's FM Sybiha told Germany's Wadephul that Russia hit Kharkiv's TPP-5 hours after announcing an energy truce. He reaffirmed Ukraine's readiness for a full ceasefire if Russia stops attacks and urged more military aid, EU accession progress, and use of frozen Russian assets.

@fheisbourg.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 8:35 PM

A rightly unrepentant Frank Fukuyama delivers an important book (read the awesome last chapter if nothing else, though the amusing account of his tussle with French 1970s deconstructionists shouldn't be missed). Spoiler: prospects for rhe last man aren't great.

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@fheisbourg.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 5:41 PM

Glucksmann's excellent primary score will make it very difficult for François Hollande to stand as a pinch-hitter for the mainstream left. As a presidential candidate, Glucksmann has yet to prove that that he has rhe requisite charisma.

@fheisbourg.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 5:35 PM

Une branlée (bien méritée) pour Olivier Faure (14%) et une conséquence politique majeure: il sera très difficile pour François Hollande de se présenter face au score sans appel de Glücks. Mais que saura faire ce dernier bien peu charismatique avec son excellent résultat?

@kyivindependent.comOct 10, 2026, 3:51 PMReposted by @fheisbourg.bsky.social

⚡️️️️️️️Update: Death toll in Russian airstrike in Zaporizhzhia rises to 20. At least 20 people have been killed after Russia dropped five guided bombs on a residential neighborhood in Zaporizhzhia early on Oct. 10. The victims include three children.

@kyivindependent.comOct 10, 2026, 4:04 PMReposted by @fheisbourg.bsky.social

⚡️️️️️️️US demands Kyiv halt refinery attacks, threatens to suspend intelligence sharing. During recent talks, the Ukrainians were told that Washington would cut off intelligence sharing that has helped Kyiv identify and strike targets inside Russia, one person present told the Kyiv Independent.

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