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Allen Downey

@allendowney.bsky.social

79 Following5.1k Followers

Former professor at Olin College, principal data scientist at PyMC Labs, author of Think Python, and Probably Overthinking It -- blog and book -- and stark raving Bayesian.

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@pymc-labs.bsky.socialOct 7, 2026, 5:11 PMReposted by @allendowney.bsky.social

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@allendowney.bsky.socialSep 30, 2026, 5:22 PM

More about this example at allendowney.substack.com/p/defend-mar...

@allendowney.bsky.socialSep 30, 2026, 5:22 PM

This example is from my book-in-progress, You Would Choose Now. The first two chapters are available as an Early Access edition at leanpub.com/ywcn

@allendowney.bsky.socialSep 30, 2026, 5:22 PM

In theory, fundamental rights "depend on the outcome of no elections", but in reality, they absolutely do.

@allendowney.bsky.socialSep 30, 2026, 5:22 PM

Were they being inconsistent? It's possible that in the 26 intervening years, they had changed their personal views — based on the data, it's clear that many people did. But I think it's as likely that they were faithfully representing the views of their constituents.

@allendowney.bsky.socialSep 30, 2026, 5:22 PM

In the 2022 Senate vote, there were eight senators who had also voted in the Senate in 1996, and two of them voted for both bills — that is, first they voted against gay marriage, then they voted for it. In the House, 13 representatives voted for both bills.

@allendowney.bsky.socialSep 30, 2026, 5:22 PM

• In 2022, Congress passed the Respect for Marriage Act — which repealed DOMA — with substantial bipartisan support. By then, about 66% of Americans supported same-sex marriage.

@allendowney.bsky.socialSep 30, 2026, 5:22 PM

• In 1996, Congress passed the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA), which defined marriage, for purposes of federal law, as "only a legal union between one man and one woman". At the time, fewer than 20% of Americans supported gay marriage.

@allendowney.bsky.socialSep 30, 2026, 5:22 PM

Do you defend marriage or respect it? If the question is confusing, just remember that the Defense of Marriage Act banned same-sex marriage, and the Respect for Marriage Act allows it.

Line chart titled “Should same-sex couples have the right to marry?” Subtitle “Percent supporting marriage rights,” GSS. Estimated support rises from about 12% in 1988 to about 66% by 2020, then levels off through 2024, with a shaded uncertainty band around the time-series line and survey points as dots.
@allendowney.bsky.socialSep 24, 2026, 12:34 PM

More about this example at allendowney.substack.com/p/the-adopti...

@allendowney.bsky.socialSep 24, 2026, 12:34 PM

This example is from Chapter 2 of my book-in-progress, *You Would Choose Now*. The first two chapters are available as an Early Access edition at leanpub.com/ywcn

@allendowney.bsky.socialSep 24, 2026, 12:34 PM

* In 2022, those percentages were up to 62% and 59%. And now that those children and their friends have grown up, they are even more likely to agree — among people born in the 2000s, it's more than 70%.

@allendowney.bsky.socialSep 24, 2026, 12:34 PM

* In 2012, about 48% agreed that "same sex female couple can bring up a child as well as a male-female couple", and 44% thought a male couple could, too.

@allendowney.bsky.socialSep 24, 2026, 12:34 PM

It is also possible that the law changed public opinion. As more gay couples adopted, more people became aware of children with two mommies or two daddies.

@allendowney.bsky.socialSep 24, 2026, 12:34 PM

It didn't take long for adoption rights to catch up with public opinion. In 2008, a majority of Americans thought gay couples should be allowed to adopt. Nine years later, the law was on their side.

@allendowney.bsky.socialSep 24, 2026, 12:34 PM

But there were no federal protections until a series of Supreme Court decisions that established nationwide marriage equality (2015); required states to recognize adoptions granted in other states (2016); and required states to extend the same parental recognition to all married couples (2017).

@allendowney.bsky.socialSep 24, 2026, 12:34 PM

During that period, state laws were all over the map. Vermont and Massachusetts recognized adoption rights in 1993. Florida was the last holdout — a 1977 law barred gay people from adopting until it was overturned in 2010.

@allendowney.bsky.socialSep 24, 2026, 12:34 PM

In 1992, only 28% of Americans said gay couples should be allowed to adopt children. But support grew quickly: by 2008 it was above 50%, and in 2024 it was above 80%.

Line chart titled “Should gay couples be allowed to adopt?” Subtitle “Percent favoring adoption rights,” ANES 1992–2024. Estimated support rises from roughly 28% in 1992 to about 81% by 2024, with a shaded uncertainty band around the time-series line and survey points as dots.
@allendowney.bsky.socialSep 15, 2026, 12:32 PM

More about this example here: allendowney.substack.com/p/how-was-th...

@allendowney.bsky.socialSep 15, 2026, 12:32 PM

The first two chapters of the book are available as an Early Access edition at leanpub.com/ywcn

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