@minczifra.bsky.social
Political & security analyst. 🇪🇺🇭🇺🇺🇸. FPRI Eurasia fellow, chief editor of Bear Market Brief. Delphi GRC fellow. Ex-CEPA, ESI. Posts about 🇷🇺, 🇪🇺, illiberalism & its limits. My own views.
Здесь вам не Toth.
@minczifra.bsky.socialIt looks like we've both missed the news of Bezos and Musk standing on their hind legs with their tongues hanging out earlier this week. Google can only get the bronze this time.
@minczifra.bsky.socialOne thing we can be pretty sure about is that from tomorrow on, Google will start referring to Gemini as "super intelligence".
@minczifra.bsky.socialStart the week with the latest @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social ! Read about the details of Russia's federal and regional budgets, Ukraine's grain exports, protests against election rigging, the meeting of the Valdai Club and more!
Subscribe!
@minczifra.bsky.socialCar culture in the US is about as antiquated, backwards and embarrassing as cash culture in Germany.
@minczifra.bsky.socialReposted by @minczifra.bsky.socialNew on Substack: an update on budgeting as the federal budget bill is discussed, a couple of interesting nationalization cases from the regions, and some comments on an assortment of regional developments that didn't make it into BMB.
@minczifra.bsky.social...and if you'd rather read it on the blog:
@minczifra.bsky.socialNew on Substack: an update on budgeting as the federal budget bill is discussed, a couple of interesting nationalization cases from the regions, and some comments on an assortment of regional developments that didn't make it into BMB.
@minczifra.bsky.socialIf you're in NYC and looking for something to do tomorrow evening:
@themoscowtimes.comReposted by @minczifra.bsky.socialRussia plans to spend 17.1 trillion rubles ($202.58 billion) on defense in 2027, around 27% more than the amount originally budgeted and the highest figure since the start of the war in Ukraine, government documents seen by Reuters showed.
@abarbashin.bsky.socialReposted by @minczifra.bsky.socialKremlin knows which Russian figures Western analysts actually use. Common mistakes: treating official prices as market prices, ignoring decrees that change what the number means, and reading buffers as proof of stability.
How to avoid them:
ridl.io/seven-mistak...
@minczifra.bsky.socialTwo Orban-era ministers were arrested in Hungary today. These are relatively small cases, but several other probes are in progress and it looks like prosecutors are just getting started.
@minczifra.bsky.socialIt's Monday and time for the new @bearmarketbrief.bsky.social!
Read about the Russian government's budget plans, sanctions, the arrest of political analyst Alexander Kynev & the aftermath of the Duma vote!
Subscribe to have it sent to you each week!
bearmarketbrief.substack.com/p/lets-get-f...
@minczifra.bsky.socialKynev has worked with several organizations in the crosshairs of the security services, but the suggestion here is that by imprisoning him the security elite can land a punch on Kirienko who helped to create New People as managed opposition, by suggesting that the party worked with a "criminal".
@minczifra.bsky.socialThis quick take by Stanovaya is even more worrying: she says that the situation is likely worse than the fractures already reported & implies that this is the security elite landing a punch on Kirienko and, by extension, political managers, to show who's in charge of domestic pol
t.me/stanovaya/1876
@minczifra.bsky.socialUpdate: Kynev was reportedly tortured in custody and is in the prison hospital. He was arrested three days ago, in all likelihood for his analytical work on Russia's regions.
@minczifra.bsky.socialKynev is one of the foremost experts on regional politics in Russia and has been publishing analysis from inside the country for the past years. Solidarity
@minczifra.bsky.socialKhrushchev shoe vibes
@minczifra.bsky.socialApart from the Brief, I also write monthly summaries of what I think are the most meaningful developments in Russian politics, for Delphi GRC. Here's the latest one, hot on the heels of the Duma election and the announcement of new tax hikes.
@minczifra.bsky.socialAs expected, here's a fresh package of tax hikes, the 3rd since the full-scale invasion, in spite of repeated claims to the opposite by the federal government. The planned deficit for 2027 is 2% of GDP, but the govt has a poor track record with deficit targets
www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/09/24/f...
@theins.pressReposted by @minczifra.bsky.socialNovaya Gazeta Europe analysis shows Putin’s party would have won only 34% without ballot stuffing — not the official 57.8% A method for detecting electoral fraud developed by statistician Sergei Shpilkin confirmed the tally was artificially “inflated.”
