Nah not yet, just a retrace as risk relaxes, for now

It's a close call for me whether all the focus on the gamma thresholds is a help or a trap for all but the shortest of horizons. The huge drops in gamma comparable to Friday over the past few years have often coincided with market lows rather than the start of something nasty.

Jump in oil threatened a more correlated selloff in an already-stressed unwindy tape, probably. Not sure it needs to be any more complicated than that, we’ll see.

sure

This truly is not the answer to every question

RIght. And in '87 it had been 58 years since the prior scarring crash.

At the NYSE this morning, a floor old-timer came by and said, "Friday Oct. 16, Monday is Oct. 19 - just like in '87..." Sure. One thing different from '87 is you didn't then have people with living memory of a one-day 22% crash who saw a possible rerun on the screen when they blur their eyes...

The time stamps are the asterisks

With all professional respect for needing to have a take on deadline, this is classic "sounds good when you write it, not when you really think about it" stuff. Small sample size, random success by statistically mediocre players in a postseason field with closely clustered AL teams, talent-wise...

I was just going to say, it's quite ridiculous MSFT and JNJ are the only two triple-A's left. Hard to make the case those two are notably better credits than, say, AAPL and PG, but so it goes.

Pretty much the same across MLB

It's all eye-of-the-beholder stuff. How many secular bear markets in bonds over the last 80 years? One? That's your sample?

I'm simply saying I wasn't out there telling people to buy bonds on the way down. I'm also suspicious of confident assertions about the "secular" trajectory, in general.

When did I write that piece?

As a furious rally in Treasuries rages, I'll note again that the 2026 bond selloff had rebuilt a helpful yield cushion against risk. From my newsletter 16 days ago, noting that the reason to rebalance into bonds is not because one knows that a turn is near, but because one never knows what's next.

AI-foodchain stocks have been under pressure for four months. Yesterday's dump in leveraged data-center names was noisy and dramatic but not new. The speculative crescendo in AI sectors came in the May-June momentum stampede. Those springtime peaks now form a potential support band for the S&P 500.

The market's clockwork rottional defenses faltered yesterday but are back in gear today, with follow-through weakness in AI-buildout sectors offset by rallies in quality non-tech and consumer stocks thanks to the huge drop in Treasury yields...

This report today gave extra torque to the AI-hardware stock selloff and credit stress. Without judging the soundness of the plausible-seeming analysis, it’s worth recalling that the Citrini SaaS-pocalypse report hit that sector in Q1 when software stocks were much closer to a bottom than a peak.

Yeah, because the huge advantage held by pitchers even more extreme in postseason when only the top arms get in. Also something about teams built to home-park specs. Rays/Brewers had best home records in quirky/inhospitable stadiums. I don’t begrudge them, but the mid/dull Guardians are annoying.