“We will burn their refineries.”

It has been a tough couple of days for Ukraine, with dozens killed in Russian strikes, and Trump’s ‘stab in the back’ diesel deal with Putin.

My latest weekly update.

mickryan.substack.com/p/trumps-die...

"I hope the Americans don't give them Patriot to protect their oil refineries.” @kyivindependent.com.web.brid.gy kyivindependent.com/exclusive-it...

An interesting set of “what if” papers from NATO Defence College www.ndc.nato.int/what-if-ten-...

My in-depth interview with Modern War Institute about Operation Vivaldi, modern land combat, the tough intellectual work of retuning to the offensive in Ukraine, and what Western military institutions should be learning. mickryan.substack.com/p/discussing...

“Seventeen years ago, I made a decision that wounded two Rangers. I have carried that decision ever since. If a machine makes that same mistake twenty years from now, who will carry it?” A good piece on human decision-making & AI from @MWI_editor mwi.westpoint.edu/we-shot-the-...

"Both sides are betting on their own industrial capacity (and that of their supporters), societal endurance and will." The long winter ahead in Ukraine, and the respective theories of success for Ukraine & Russia. mickryan.substack.com/p/vivaldi-fp...

Robert Brovdi has noted “technology is advancing so rapidly that new drones may emerge even before procurement of the previous generation is complete.” This will be something the new US Autonomous Warfare Comd might address. mickryan.substack.com/p/project-ag...

"Generative AI is a cognitive mirror. When an operator is handed an open, unstructured AI interface, the machine reflects the rigor of the user." www.usni.org/BoydAndTheMa...

Latest publication: Hammers & Nails: Military Innovation as a Strategic Dead End

In this article I argue that innovation has become an end-in-itself, supplanting the much harder challenge of defining a meaningful, justifiable and achievable strategy.
www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/hamm...

Innovation and pioneering new technology and ideas are not the only ways to generate advantage in modern war. Sometimes, the emulation of innovations from elsewhere is just as important.

mickryan.substack.com/p/building-a...

The Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps showed this week that its counteroffensive has built not just tactical but operational momentum. It has also released information on aspects of UGV integration into ground operations. All this & more in my weekly update. mickryan.substack.com/p/robotic-ai...

Exploitation of enemy weapons, tech & ideas has always been a crucial part of any nation’s warfighting strategy. It permits development of counters - or copying good enemy tech & ideas. Here, the disassembling of a jet-powered Russian Geran-4 attack drone, by @rferl.org.web.brid.gy

In this episode of the Russian Roulette podcast, I join Maria Snegovaya (@MSnegovaya) & Sam Charap to discuss whether Western fears of escalation systematically delayed critical military aid, and what victory for Ukraine might look like. podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/r...

Putin is 'further away' from Donbas victory after disastrous summer offensive. My latest conversation with @KateGerbeau on Frontline about the war in Ukraine. youtu.be/TQokrdFRA-Y?...

The latest episode of The Shield of the Republic, with Elliott and Eric, is out. As always, it is a great conversation. @ShieldPod podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/s...

Australia has signed a 10-year security agreement with Ukraine. It includes security assistance, industry & intelligence cooperation, med support to Ukraine’s military, energy, support in countering Russian misinformation, & holding Russia responsible for war crimes. www.dfat.gov.au/countries/uk...

“No geopolitical conflict in the world today has the capacity, if miscalculated, of bringing ruin upon us all like the one between the United States and China. China tore through our domestic politics three-quarters of a century ago. It could be worse this time.” www.nytimes.com/2026/09/21/o...

The authoritarian nations of China, Russia, Iran & North Korea, some of whom have interfered with US elections in the past, are likely to be anticipating the potential for political disfunction during & after the US mid-term elections. How worried should we be? mickryan.substack.com/p/how-much-s...