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Jenny Chase

@solarchase.bsky.social

1.6k Following18.5k Followers

Solar and clean power analyst at BloombergNEF, goose keeper. Author of a book, "Solar Power Finance Without the Jargon". Opinions all my own.

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@solarchase.bsky.socialOct 20, 2025, 7:43 AM Pinned

Time for 2025 updates to my annual “opinions about solar” thread. If you like these, you might like the second edition of my book, Solar Power Finance Without The Jargon. A 30% discount code WSQ0437 is valid on publisher website until end of November 2025.

www.worldscientific.com/worldscibook...

worldscientific.comSolar Power Finance Without the Jargon
14
@solarchase.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:26 PM

Yes, it's LDES, my understanding is you can add more storage medium. (Not an expert on Form or iron-air though, I have a lot to learn about battery tech).

@solarchase.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:24 PM

(That's all for now, folks, I am trying to keep this manageably short).

@solarchase.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:18 PM

Still no, sorry.

@solarchase.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:18 PM

Thank you, my husband did not clock or understand that reference.

@solarchase.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:15 PM

41. Achieving a low-carbon transition, for most countries, will not look like winning a war or marching while waving flags. It is the ability to say "no thank you, we do not want what you are selling" to the petrostates, and walking (or cycling, or taking a bus, or driving an EV) away.

@solarchase.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:15 PM

40. Decarbonization offers financial savings as well as costs. Even our Economic Transition Scenario, a base case where change is driven by cost analysis and existing policy, has energy import dependence falling substantially for many countries by 2035.

No paywall:
about.bnef.com/insights/cle...

@solarchase.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:15 PM

39. Even our Net Zero Scenario modelling, to my despair, relies a lot on carbon capture and storage from a residual fragment of gas generation. Net zero is just very hard, but working towards it is better than not working!

@solarchase.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:15 PM

38. Many of these turbines will run at lower capacity factors than historical gas turbines, and the best sort of fossil fuel plant is one that runs only occasionally. It is possible to have higher fossil capacity but much lower fuel burn, and indeed this makes a lot of economic sense.

@solarchase.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:15 PM

37. Nonetheless, it will be very difficult to reach net zero emissions, and getting rid of the last 10% of fossil fuel will be the hardest. Gas turbine orders hit a record 67GW worldwide in 1H 2026 (paywall).

www.bnef.com/insights/40519

@solarchase.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:15 PM

36. Solar long ago stopped being only for rich countries, and now batteries are the same.

@solarchase.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:15 PM

35. The Philippines is having an amazing boom – we estimate that it will build 5.6GW of new solar in 2026, compared with 1GW last year. Plus 2.7GWh of batteries in 2026. Maybe the first market where the solar boom comes with batteries from the start.

@solarchase.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:15 PM

34. Demand for solar panels to sub-Saharan Africa is rising; it was the destination for 9.4 gigawatts (GW) of Chinese module exports in the first half of 2026, compared with 13.1GW in the whole of 2025. South Africa, Nigeria, Congo, Ghana and Kenya are the largest markets.

@solarchase.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:15 PM

This has stabilised and even reduced Pakistan’s demand for gas and grid power, which puts new stresses on the utilities and the government, which is responsible for capacity payments to China-owned coal plants. I do not know what will happen next.

@solarchase.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:15 PM

33. Pakistan: about 25% of generation comes from solar, mostly small systems owned by the user. It has grown due to rising power prices, distrust of the utilities, landlords who see the benefits and provide solar to tenants as patronage, and really good how-to Tiktoks in local languages.

@solarchase.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:15 PM

32. A few interesting bellwether markets! Bulgaria, with 2025 peak power demand of 7.4GW, already has 4GW of batteries and a further 2-4GW in the pipeline, for 16GWh total. It is well connected with neighbouring grids and may become a short-term balancing hub.

@solarchase.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:15 PM

31. The US whack-a-mole tariffs on new solar supply countries has resulted in cell and module factories built in a hurry in Africa, almost on a temporary basis because everyone knows the tariffs will hit them next. This is not good for developing a skilled workforce or rigorous quality control.

@solarchase.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:15 PM

30. The rest of us, if we want to be less dependent on China for solar modules, should buy from southeast Asia, India or Turkey, which will be happy to sell them at much less cost than setting up a domestic industry.

@solarchase.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:13 PM

29. As a consequence of trade barriers, US solar module buyers are now paying more than 38 US cents per Watt, for generally worse products than free trade markets are getting for 12 US cents per Watt.

@solarchase.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:13 PM

28. The US and India are locked into having high-price local solar module markets, due to trade wars. Sigh.

An edit of a meme, from a cartoon by Tom Gauld, to apply to trade wars. Two very similar-looking countries are on opposite sides of a river. One is labelled “Our Blessed Homeland”, the other “Their Barbarous Wastes”. Jenny Chase has edited the text below so that “Our Blessed Homeland” has “Our Support for Strategic Industries” while Their Barbarous Wastes has “Their Filthy Production Subsidies”. Likewise ”Our Investment in the Energy Transition”, “Their Profit-chasing Bandwagon-Jumping”. “Our Free Market Competition Benefitting Consumers ,”Their Terrible Dumping at Cost”. “Our Innovative Collaborative Companies”, “Their Nasty Cartels”.
@solarchase.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 1:13 PM

27. For 7 years I have been refusing to get excited about perovskites. Still not. Crystalline silicon is honestly pretty great, and perovskites won’t solve the basic problems for solar, which are unrelated to efficiency or price.

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